KCMH / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

68%

64%

39%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 42.6¢Risks 42.65u

EPSNO 57.4¢Risks 57.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.35u · EPS −57.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:33:17+00:00	58.3%	3.8%	47.8%	12.2%	18.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	58.3%	3.8%	47.8%	12.2%	18.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	58.3%	3.8%	47.8%	12.2%	18.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00	58.3%	3.8%	47.8%	12.2%	18.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00	58.3%	3.8%	47.8%	12.2%	18.4%
2026-10-19T11:20:58+00:00	58.3%	5.0%	67.4%	12.2%	18.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:35+00:00	58.3%	5.0%	67.4%	12.2%	18.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	58.3%	5.0%	67.4%	12.2%	18.4%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	45.2%	5.0%	67.4%	12.2%	18.4%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	45.1%	5.0%	67.4%	12.2%	18.5%
2026-10-19T15:13:36+00:00	45.1%	5.5%	67.4%	12.2%	18.5%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	45.1%	5.5%	67.4%	12.2%	18.5%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	45.1%	5.5%	67.4%	12.2%	18.5%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	45.1%	5.5%	45.3%	12.2%	18.5%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	45.1%	5.5%	45.3%	12.2%	18.5%
2026-10-19T19:00:03+00:00	45.1%	5.5%	45.3%	12.2%	18.5%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	48.6%	5.5%	45.3%	17.6%	57.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	48.6%	5.5%	45.3%	17.6%	57.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:53+00:00	48.6%	5.5%	45.3%	17.6%	57.9%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	48.6%	5.5%	45.3%	17.6%	57.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	48.6%	5.5%	45.3%	17.6%	57.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	48.6%	5.5%	63.8%	17.6%	57.9%
2026-10-20T00:16:53+00:00	48.6%	5.5%	63.8%	17.6%	57.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	48.6%	5.5%	63.8%	17.6%	57.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	41.0%	5.5%	63.8%	17.6%	57.9%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	41.0%	5.5%	63.8%	17.6%	57.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	41.0%	5.5%	63.8%	17.6%	57.9%
2026-10-20T04:04:44+00:00	41.0%	5.5%	63.8%	17.6%	57.9%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	41.0%	5.5%	63.8%	17.6%	57.9%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	41.0%	5.5%	68.8%	17.6%	57.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	41.0%	5.5%	68.8%	17.6%	57.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	41.0%	5.5%	68.8%	17.6%	57.9%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	67.8%	5.5%	68.8%	17.6%	63.7%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	67.8%	5.5%	68.8%	17.6%	63.7%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	67.8%	5.5%	68.8%	17.6%	63.7%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	67.8%	5.5%	68.8%	17.6%	63.7%
2026-10-20T10:53:45+00:00	67.8%	8.0%	77.3%	39.2%	63.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	67.8%	8.0%	77.3%	39.2%	63.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	67.8%	8.0%	77.3%	39.2%	63.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	67.8%	8.0%	77.3%	39.2%	63.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	77%	77.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	76.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	64%	76.0°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	71.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	34%	71.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	22%	70.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	68.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261026-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Columbus runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗