KCMH / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

68%

64%

39%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 42.6¢Risks 42.65u

EPSNO 57.4¢Risks 57.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.35u · EPS −57.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	—	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	28.2%	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	0.5%	—	—	10.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	1.2%	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	36.1%	1.1%	23.8%	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	32.3%	5.6%	2.0%	—	8.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	6.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	43.4%	42.0%	33.0%	12.8%	25.4%	14.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	32.0%	—	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	77%	77.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	76.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	64%	76.0°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	71.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	34%	71.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	22%	70.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	68.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261026-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Columbus runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗