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KCMH / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
93%
WN2
88%
EPS
82%
ICON
42%
HRES
34%
Consensus
77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 63.6¢Risks 63.55u
VS
HRESNO 36.4¢Risks 36.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +36.45u · HRES −36.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:45+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS HRES: 33.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:45+00:00IFS HRES: 33.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS HRES: 33.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 33.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00ICON: 42.5% · 2026-10-20T10:53:45+00:00ICON: 42.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00ICON: 42.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 42.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 12:2410-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:45+00:0093.3%81.6%88.0%33.8%42.5%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:0093.3%81.6%88.0%33.8%42.5%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:0093.3%81.6%88.0%33.8%42.5%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:0093.3%81.6%88.0%33.8%42.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single93%74.1°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 288%71.5°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble82%69.1°F4.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend53%66.0°F7.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON42%63.6°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES34%62.8°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261027-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗