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KCMH / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
93%
WN2
88%
EPS
82%
ICON
42%
HRES
34%
Consensus
77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 63.6¢Risks 63.55u
VS
HRESNO 36.4¢Risks 36.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +36.45u · HRES −36.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.2% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 56.4% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 52.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.6% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 76.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 87.4% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 78.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.6% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 76.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 76.8% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 74.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 68.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 79.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 70.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 65.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 85.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 74.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 63.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 68.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.9% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 80.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 82.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 13.5% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 62.9% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 79.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 55.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 46.7% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 36.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.6% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 72.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 39.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 32.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 36.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 40.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 41.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 45.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 46.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 37.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 45.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 38.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 33.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 36.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 33.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 06:0010-16 06:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:002.1%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:002.1%———8.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0025.2%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0017.9%———39.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0056.4%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0013.1%———28.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0040.0%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0052.1%———25.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0023.6%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:006.9%———32.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0042.6%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0076.4%———36.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0087.4%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0078.8%———40.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0051.6%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0076.4%———41.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0076.8%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0074.0%———45.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0068.3%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0079.2%———46.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0070.8%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0065.0%———37.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0085.1%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0074.6%—16.6%—45.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0063.4%—62.9%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0031.3%———38.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:008.7%—6.3%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0018.1%—79.4%—33.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:007.9%—55.1%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0068.2%—16.0%—36.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0010.9%—46.7%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0080.2%13.5%36.1%72.4%33.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0082.0%—29.6%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single93%74.1°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 288%71.5°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble82%69.1°F4.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend53%66.0°F7.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON42%63.6°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES34%62.8°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261027-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗