KDCA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≤ 58°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 4.7¢Risks 1.18u

EPSNO 95.3¢Risks 23.82u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +23.82u · EPS −23.82u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:02:37+00:00	25.8%	5.4%	18.9%	24.2%	5.4%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	25.8%	5.4%	18.9%	24.2%	5.4%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	25.8%	5.4%	18.9%	24.2%	5.4%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	25.8%	5.4%	18.9%	24.2%	5.4%
2026-10-13T11:05:09+00:00	25.8%	6.0%	17.4%	24.2%	5.4%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	25.8%	6.0%	17.4%	24.2%	5.4%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	25.8%	6.0%	17.4%	24.2%	5.4%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	25.8%	6.0%	17.4%	24.2%	5.4%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	22.3%	6.0%	17.3%	24.2%	5.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	22.3%	5.9%	17.3%	24.2%	5.5%
2026-10-13T15:41:15+00:00	22.3%	5.9%	17.3%	24.2%	5.5%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	22.3%	5.9%	17.3%	24.2%	5.5%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	22.3%	5.9%	16.0%	24.2%	5.5%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	22.3%	5.9%	16.0%	24.2%	5.5%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	22.3%	5.9%	16.0%	24.2%	5.5%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	19.2%	5.9%	16.0%	24.2%	2.6%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	19.2%	5.9%	16.0%	24.2%	2.6%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	19.2%	5.9%	16.0%	24.2%	2.6%
2026-10-13T21:42:57+00:00	19.2%	5.9%	16.0%	24.2%	2.6%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	19.2%	5.9%	16.0%	33.0%	2.6%
2026-10-13T23:13:32+00:00	19.2%	5.9%	16.7%	33.0%	2.6%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	19.2%	5.9%	16.7%	33.0%	2.6%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	19.2%	5.9%	16.7%	33.0%	2.6%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	11.6%	5.9%	16.7%	33.0%	2.6%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	11.6%	5.9%	16.7%	33.0%	2.6%
2026-10-14T02:59:29+00:00	11.6%	5.9%	16.7%	33.0%	2.6%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	11.6%	5.9%	16.7%	33.0%	2.6%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	11.6%	5.9%	16.7%	33.0%	2.6%
2026-10-14T05:15:50+00:00	11.6%	5.9%	16.7%	33.0%	2.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00	11.6%	5.9%	16.7%	33.0%	2.6%
2026-10-14T06:46:09+00:00	11.6%	5.9%	16.7%	33.0%	2.6%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	8.5%	5.9%	16.7%	33.0%	0.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	8.5%	5.9%	16.7%	33.0%	0.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00	8.5%	5.9%	16.7%	33.0%	0.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	8.5%	5.9%	16.7%	33.0%	0.0%
2026-10-14T10:32:08+00:00	8.5%	5.9%	16.7%	14.7%	0.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:04+00:00	9.0%	0.0%	7.4%	11.6%	0.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	9.0%	0.0%	7.4%	11.6%	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00	9.0%	0.0%	7.4%	11.6%	0.0%
2026-10-16T13:27:59+00:00	9.9%	0.0%	7.4%	13.5%	0.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	9.8%	0.0%	7.4%	13.5%	0.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:09+00:00	9.8%	0.0%	7.4%	13.5%	0.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	9.8%	0.0%	7.4%	13.5%	0.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:04+00:00	9.8%	0.0%	7.4%	13.5%	0.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	9.8%	0.0%	7.4%	13.5%	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	9.8%	0.0%	7.4%	13.5%	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	9.8%	0.0%	7.4%	13.5%	0.0%
2026-10-16T19:36:51+00:00	8.6%	0.0%	7.4%	13.5%	0.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	8.6%	0.0%	7.4%	13.5%	0.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	8.6%	0.0%	7.4%	13.5%	0.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	8.6%	0.0%	7.4%	13.5%	0.0%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	8.6%	0.0%	7.4%	9.4%	0.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:16+00:00	8.6%	0.0%	5.0%	9.4%	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00	8.6%	0.0%	5.0%	9.4%	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	8.6%	0.0%	5.0%	9.4%	0.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	8.6%	0.0%	5.0%	9.4%	0.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	8.6%	0.0%	5.0%	9.4%	0.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	8.6%	0.0%	5.0%	9.4%	0.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	8.6%	0.0%	5.0%	9.4%	0.0%
2026-10-17T04:40:56+00:00	8.6%	0.0%	5.0%	9.4%	0.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:11+00:00	8.6%	0.0%	5.0%	9.4%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	8.6%	0.0%	5.7%	9.4%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	8.6%	0.0%	5.7%	9.4%	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	95%	55.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.9063
National Blend	94%	55.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.8855
IFS HRES	9%	63.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0088
AIFS Single	9%	63.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0074
WeatherNext 2	6%	63.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0032
IFS Ensemble	<1%	80.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0000
ICON	<1%	70.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 58°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261017-TMAX-LE58
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Washington stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 58°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗