KDCA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≤ 58°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 4.7¢Risks 1.18u

EPSNO 95.3¢Risks 23.82u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +23.82u · EPS −23.82u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	29.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	14.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	—	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	4.0%	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	0.2%	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	2.7%	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	2.7%	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	63.3%	1.9%	1.6%	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	72.5%	0.1%	0.6%	28.6%	—	15.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	1.1%	22.6%	—	15.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	41.7%	18.4%	25.1%	—	30.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	63.3%	12.7%	15.9%	8.7%	—	34.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	58.1%	38.0%	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	8.0%	15.7%	26.5%	—	40.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	51.7%	28.8%	22.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	60.4%	9.0%	32.2%	22.8%	—	42.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	56.3%	17.8%	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	50.9%	3.6%	20.3%	7.9%	—	31.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	0.3%	4.8%	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.7%	—	2.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	—	1.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	0.0%	9.2%	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	0.0%	3.8%	1.5%	0.6%	3.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	0.0%	5.4%	3.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	0.0%	12.1%	4.2%	—	6.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	0.0%	4.5%	6.2%	—	11.9%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	34.2%	0.0%	2.5%	6.7%	0.3%	10.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	0.0%	3.5%	7.7%	—	9.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	0.0%	0.4%	7.4%	0.1%	7.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	30.0%	0.0%	0.8%	4.7%	—	6.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	0.0%	0.5%	6.8%	0.1%	7.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	86.4%	10.5%	24.8%	14.4%	—	44.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	83.9%	71.0%	78.6%	98.2%	89.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	67.6%	64.5%	79.7%	—	79.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	95%	55.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.9063
National Blend	94%	55.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.8855
IFS HRES	9%	63.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0088
AIFS Single	9%	63.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0074
WeatherNext 2	6%	63.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0032
IFS Ensemble	<1%	80.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0000
ICON	<1%	70.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 58°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261017-TMAX-LE58
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Washington stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 58°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗