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KDCA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST96%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
>99%
AIFS
>99%
HRES
97%
ICON
96%
EPS
59%
Consensus
96%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 79.3¢Risks 79.35u
VS
EPSNO 20.7¢Risks 20.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +20.65u · EPS −20.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 99.2% · 2026-10-17T04:40:56+00:00AIFS Single: 99.2% · 2026-10-17T05:28:11+00:00AIFS Single: 99.2% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00AIFS Single: 99.2% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-10-17T07:43:58+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.7% · 2026-10-17T04:40:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.7% · 2026-10-17T05:28:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.7% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.7% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.7% · 2026-10-17T07:43:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-17T04:40:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-17T05:28:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T07:43:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00IFS HRES: 94.6% · 2026-10-17T04:40:56+00:00IFS HRES: 94.6% · 2026-10-17T05:28:11+00:00IFS HRES: 94.6% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00IFS HRES: 94.6% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00IFS HRES: 97.3% · 2026-10-17T07:43:58+00:00IFS HRES: 97.3% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00IFS HRES: 97.3% · 2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:00IFS HRES: 97.3% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00IFS HRES: 97.3% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00ICON: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T04:40:56+00:00ICON: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T05:28:11+00:00ICON: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00ICON: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00ICON: 96.0% · 2026-10-17T07:43:58+00:00ICON: 96.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00ICON: 96.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:00ICON: 96.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00ICON: 96.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:0010-17 04:4010-17 07:4310-17 10:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:40:56+00:0099.2%58.7%99.9%94.6%97.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:11+00:0099.2%58.7%99.9%94.6%97.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:0099.2%58.7%100.0%94.6%97.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:0099.2%58.7%100.0%94.6%97.8%
2026-10-17T07:43:58+00:0099.3%58.7%100.0%97.3%96.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:0099.3%58.7%100.0%97.3%96.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:0099.3%58.7%100.0%97.3%96.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:0099.3%58.7%100.0%97.3%96.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:0099.3%58.7%100.0%97.3%96.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2>99%69.7°F3.4°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
AIFS Single>99%68.5°F4.1°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES97%66.4°F4.1°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
ICON96%64.7°F3.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble59%59.5°F4.5°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
NWS forecast56%59.0°F3.4°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending
National Blend55%59.0°F4.3°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261019-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 17 · 04:40 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 59°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗