KDCA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 10:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

97%

96%

59%

Consensus

96%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 79.3¢Risks 79.35u

EPSNO 20.7¢Risks 20.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +20.65u · EPS −20.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	86.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	96.3%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	—	—	—	76.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	57.7%	—	—	—	—	73.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	77.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	—	—	—	87.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	4.9%	—	—	88.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	23.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	83.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	94.3%	—	70.5%	—	—	91.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	90.6%	—	89.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	52.7%	91.2%	—	—	90.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	91.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	85.9%	58.4%	90.4%	67.0%	—	88.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	90.0%	93.4%	87.2%	96.2%	—	88.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	97.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	91.9%	95.6%	98.2%	94.6%	—	88.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	80.5%	—	98.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	96.2%	97.8%	68.4%	—	76.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	82.7%	14.8%	97.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	85.2%	89.5%	97.3%	30.8%	—	67.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	88.1%	78.6%	96.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	75.9%	94.1%	93.0%	6.8%	—	73.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	93.2%	96.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	95.7%	91.7%	87.6%	—	70.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	91.2%	94.1%	85.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	81.7%	94.1%	74.5%	85.8%	—	40.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	87.6%	96.5%	4.9%	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	93.9%	97.0%	75.7%	91.0%	—	84.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	96.5%	98.2%	92.4%	—	—	91.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	96.5%	96.2%	95.0%	97.4%	0.0%	94.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	98.2%	96.9%	97.8%	4.5%	—	96.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	97.3%	97.1%	98.1%	99.3%	81.7%	97.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	98.0%	99.1%	96.9%	99.4%	—	97.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	98.5%	99.2%	98.5%	99.5%	0.0%	97.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	98.1%	98.7%	98.7%	99.4%	—	96.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	98.7%	98.9%	98.8%	99.0%	86.6%	97.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	99.2%	99.7%	99.2%	99.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	99.6%	99.6%	99.6%	99.5%	98.7%	98.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	99.6%	99.6%	99.8%	99.5%	—	98.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.9%	99.9%	99.7%	99.5%	99.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	99.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	69.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0000
AIFS Single	>99%	68.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0000
IFS HRES	97%	66.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0007
ICON	96%	64.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0016
IFS Ensemble	59%	59.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1706
NWS forecast	56%	59.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1954
National Blend	55%	59.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.2061

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261019-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 17 · 04:40 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 59°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗