KDCA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

91%

75%

72%

56%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 76.0¢Risks 75.95u

ICONNO 24.0¢Risks 24.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +24.05u · ICON −24.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:47:44+00:00	71.6%	55.0%	90.0%	85.5%	49.6%
2026-10-12T08:34:22+00:00	71.6%	55.0%	90.0%	85.5%	49.6%
2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00	71.6%	55.0%	90.0%	85.5%	49.6%
2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00	71.6%	55.0%	90.0%	85.5%	49.6%
2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00	71.6%	55.0%	90.0%	85.5%	49.6%
2026-10-15T04:01:47+00:00	79.0%	45.4%	76.7%	26.1%	72.8%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	79.0%	45.4%	76.7%	26.1%	72.8%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	79.0%	45.4%	90.1%	26.1%	72.8%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	79.0%	45.4%	90.1%	26.1%	72.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	79.0%	45.4%	90.1%	26.1%	72.8%
2026-10-15T07:48:55+00:00	66.0%	45.4%	90.1%	42.1%	78.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	66.0%	45.4%	90.1%	42.1%	78.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:18+00:00	66.0%	45.4%	90.1%	42.1%	78.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:03+00:00	66.0%	45.4%	90.1%	42.1%	78.4%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	66.0%	45.4%	90.1%	42.1%	78.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:05+00:00	66.0%	45.4%	89.2%	42.1%	78.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	66.0%	39.3%	89.2%	42.1%	78.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:05+00:00	66.0%	39.3%	89.2%	42.1%	78.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	83.1%	39.3%	89.2%	42.1%	78.3%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	83.1%	39.3%	89.2%	42.1%	78.3%
2026-10-16T04:23:51+00:00	82.0%	43.3%	88.2%	52.4%	80.1%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	82.0%	43.3%	90.6%	52.4%	80.1%
2026-10-16T05:55:48+00:00	82.0%	43.3%	90.6%	52.4%	80.1%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	82.0%	43.3%	90.6%	52.4%	80.1%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	70.4%	43.3%	90.6%	52.4%	70.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	70.4%	43.3%	90.6%	52.4%	70.2%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	70.4%	43.3%	90.6%	52.4%	70.2%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	70.4%	43.3%	90.6%	52.4%	70.2%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	70.4%	43.3%	90.6%	52.4%	70.2%
2026-10-16T11:12:04+00:00	70.4%	17.8%	82.1%	52.4%	70.2%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	70.4%	17.8%	82.1%	52.4%	70.2%
2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00	70.4%	17.8%	82.1%	52.4%	70.2%
2026-10-16T13:27:59+00:00	78.0%	17.8%	82.1%	19.1%	70.2%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	78.0%	17.9%	82.1%	19.1%	70.2%
2026-10-18T04:13:39+00:00	89.5%	72.5%	96.9%	79.0%	63.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	89.5%	72.5%	96.9%	79.0%	63.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	89.5%	72.5%	96.9%	79.0%	63.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	89.5%	72.5%	96.9%	79.0%	63.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	89.5%	72.5%	96.9%	79.0%	63.3%
2026-10-18T08:00:49+00:00	90.7%	72.5%	96.9%	78.2%	65.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	90.7%	72.5%	96.9%	78.2%	65.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	90.7%	72.5%	96.9%	78.2%	65.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	90.7%	72.5%	96.9%	78.2%	65.5%
2026-10-18T11:02:33+00:00	90.7%	79.5%	96.3%	78.2%	65.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	90.7%	79.5%	96.3%	78.2%	65.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	90.7%	79.5%	96.3%	78.2%	65.5%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	90.7%	79.5%	96.3%	78.2%	65.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	88.4%	79.0%	96.3%	78.3%	65.3%
2026-10-18T14:55:31+00:00	88.4%	79.0%	96.3%	78.3%	65.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	88.4%	71.5%	96.3%	78.3%	65.3%
2026-10-18T16:26:44+00:00	88.4%	71.5%	96.3%	78.3%	65.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:03+00:00	88.4%	71.5%	95.0%	78.3%	65.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:15+00:00	88.4%	71.5%	95.0%	78.3%	65.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	88.4%	71.5%	95.0%	78.3%	65.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	89.3%	71.5%	95.0%	75.0%	55.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	89.3%	71.5%	95.0%	75.0%	55.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	89.3%	71.5%	95.0%	75.0%	55.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	89.3%	71.5%	95.0%	75.0%	55.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	89.3%	71.5%	95.0%	75.0%	55.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	89.3%	71.5%	96.3%	75.0%	55.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	89.3%	71.5%	96.3%	75.0%	55.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	89.3%	71.5%	96.3%	75.0%	55.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:28+00:00	90.7%	71.5%	96.3%	75.0%	55.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	90.7%	71.5%	96.3%	75.0%	55.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:52+00:00	90.7%	71.5%	96.3%	75.0%	55.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:02+00:00	90.7%	71.5%	96.3%	75.0%	55.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	68.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0014
AIFS Single	91%	68.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.0086
IFS HRES	75%	66.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0625
IFS Ensemble	72%	65.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0812
National Blend	68%	65.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	0.1056
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	0.1901
ICON	56%	64.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.1971

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261019-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗