KDCA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

91%

75%

72%

56%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 76.0¢Risks 75.95u

ICONNO 24.0¢Risks 24.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +24.05u · ICON −24.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	64.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	0.8%	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	58.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	77.9%	—	39.1%	—	—	70.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	21.8%	69.4%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	69.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	57.7%	25.2%	66.4%	33.0%	—	62.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	72.2%	58.7%	80.6%	—	61.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	84.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	77.2%	87.5%	74.2%	—	59.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	86.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	78.2%	84.6%	30.1%	—	39.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	1.9%	83.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	58.3%	81.0%	6.1%	—	27.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	39.0%	76.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	67.8%	64.6%	0.5%	—	31.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	58.0%	64.1%	73.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	71.0%	59.1%	50.0%	—	26.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	64.8%	45.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	63.4%	28.7%	44.2%	—	7.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	46.0%	70.9%	0.2%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	60.2%	72.4%	27.6%	52.1%	—	38.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	78.0%	54.2%	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	65.9%	60.8%	71.8%	0.0%	58.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	75.1%	67.5%	72.4%	0.1%	—	67.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	66.9%	73.0%	84.0%	28.9%	66.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	70.7%	80.1%	64.1%	84.0%	—	65.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	80.1%	72.4%	84.1%	0.0%	66.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	73.1%	73.1%	80.9%	—	56.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	70.5%	72.7%	71.6%	73.9%	28.4%	63.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	84.5%	74.7%	74.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	80.9%	80.9%	78.8%	77.8%	65.5%	68.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	76.4%	83.8%	74.0%	—	57.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	83.9%	86.6%	89.0%	78.6%	72.4%	63.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	96.9%	97.7%	92.1%	—	78.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	68.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0014
AIFS Single	91%	68.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.0086
IFS HRES	75%	66.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0625
IFS Ensemble	72%	65.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0812
National Blend	68%	65.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	0.1056
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	0.1901
ICON	56%	64.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.1971

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261019-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗