KDCA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

79%

55%

49%

34%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 61.7¢Risks 61.70u

ICONNO 38.3¢Risks 38.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +38.30u · ICON −38.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T11:35:19+00:00	58.5%	38.5%	69.3%	77.1%	41.6%
2026-10-12T12:20:46+00:00	58.5%	50.8%	69.3%	77.1%	41.6%
2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:00	58.5%	50.8%	69.3%	77.1%	41.6%
2026-10-12T13:51:02+00:00	72.3%	50.8%	69.3%	77.1%	41.6%
2026-10-12T14:41:15+00:00	72.1%	50.8%	69.3%	77.1%	41.6%
2026-10-12T15:26:37+00:00	72.1%	50.8%	69.3%	77.1%	41.6%
2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00	72.1%	49.2%	69.3%	77.1%	41.6%
2026-10-12T16:58:00+00:00	72.1%	49.2%	80.7%	77.1%	41.6%
2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00	72.1%	49.2%	80.7%	77.1%	41.6%
2026-10-12T18:28:18+00:00	72.1%	49.2%	80.7%	77.1%	41.6%
2026-10-12T19:13:24+00:00	72.1%	49.2%	80.7%	77.1%	41.6%
2026-10-12T19:58:30+00:00	69.1%	49.2%	80.7%	72.6%	44.8%
2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00	69.1%	49.2%	80.7%	72.6%	44.8%
2026-10-12T21:28:47+00:00	69.1%	49.2%	80.7%	72.6%	44.8%
2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:00	69.1%	49.2%	80.7%	72.6%	44.8%
2026-10-12T22:59:03+00:00	69.1%	49.2%	87.0%	72.6%	44.8%
2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00	69.1%	49.2%	87.0%	72.6%	44.8%
2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00	69.1%	49.2%	87.0%	72.6%	44.8%
2026-10-13T01:14:37+00:00	69.1%	49.2%	87.0%	72.6%	44.8%
2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00	78.3%	49.2%	87.0%	72.6%	44.8%
2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00	78.3%	49.2%	87.0%	72.6%	44.8%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00	78.3%	49.2%	87.0%	72.6%	44.8%
2026-10-13T04:15:16+00:00	78.3%	49.2%	87.0%	72.6%	44.8%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00	78.3%	49.2%	87.0%	72.6%	44.8%
2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00	78.3%	49.2%	87.0%	72.6%	44.8%
2026-10-13T06:32:00+00:00	78.3%	49.2%	87.0%	72.6%	44.8%
2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00	78.3%	49.2%	87.0%	72.6%	44.8%
2026-10-13T08:02:38+00:00	75.1%	49.2%	87.0%	63.1%	74.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	75.1%	49.2%	87.0%	63.1%	74.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	75.1%	49.2%	87.0%	63.1%	74.8%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	75.1%	49.2%	87.0%	63.1%	74.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:09+00:00	75.1%	39.7%	78.5%	63.1%	74.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	75.1%	39.7%	78.5%	63.1%	74.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	75.1%	39.7%	78.5%	63.1%	74.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	75.1%	39.7%	78.5%	63.1%	74.8%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	70.1%	39.7%	78.4%	63.1%	75.2%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	70.1%	40.5%	78.4%	63.1%	75.2%
2026-10-13T15:41:15+00:00	70.1%	40.5%	78.4%	63.1%	75.2%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	70.1%	40.5%	78.4%	63.1%	75.2%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	70.1%	40.5%	79.0%	63.1%	75.2%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	70.1%	40.5%	79.0%	63.1%	75.2%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	70.1%	40.5%	79.0%	63.1%	75.2%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	76.9%	40.5%	79.0%	63.1%	78.3%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	76.9%	40.5%	79.0%	63.1%	78.3%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	76.9%	40.5%	79.0%	63.1%	78.3%
2026-10-13T21:42:57+00:00	76.9%	40.5%	79.0%	63.1%	78.3%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	76.9%	40.5%	79.0%	55.5%	78.3%
2026-10-13T23:13:32+00:00	76.9%	40.5%	85.2%	55.5%	78.2%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	76.9%	40.5%	85.2%	55.5%	78.2%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	76.9%	40.5%	85.2%	55.5%	78.2%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	57.5%	40.5%	85.2%	55.5%	78.2%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	57.5%	40.5%	85.2%	55.5%	78.2%
2026-10-14T02:59:29+00:00	57.5%	40.5%	85.2%	55.5%	78.2%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	57.5%	40.5%	85.2%	55.5%	78.2%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	57.5%	40.5%	85.2%	55.5%	78.2%
2026-10-14T05:15:50+00:00	57.5%	40.5%	85.2%	55.5%	78.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00	57.5%	40.5%	85.2%	55.5%	78.2%
2026-10-14T06:46:09+00:00	57.5%	40.5%	85.2%	55.5%	78.2%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	66.4%	40.5%	85.2%	55.5%	77.8%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	66.4%	40.5%	85.2%	55.5%	77.8%
2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00	66.4%	40.5%	85.2%	55.5%	77.8%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	66.4%	40.5%	85.2%	55.5%	77.8%
2026-10-14T10:32:10+00:00	66.4%	40.5%	85.2%	35.8%	77.8%
2026-10-14T11:20:32+00:00	66.4%	26.5%	71.2%	35.8%	77.8%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	66.4%	26.5%	71.2%	35.8%	77.8%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	66.4%	26.5%	71.2%	35.8%	77.8%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	59.6%	26.5%	71.2%	35.8%	77.8%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	59.5%	26.5%	71.2%	35.8%	77.6%
2026-10-14T15:12:00+00:00	59.5%	28.0%	71.2%	35.8%	77.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00	59.5%	28.0%	71.2%	35.8%	77.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	59.5%	28.0%	71.2%	35.8%	77.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	59.5%	28.0%	59.6%	35.8%	77.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	59.5%	28.0%	59.6%	35.8%	77.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	59.5%	28.0%	59.6%	35.8%	77.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	62.6%	28.0%	59.6%	16.2%	60.6%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	62.6%	28.0%	59.6%	16.2%	60.6%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	62.6%	28.0%	59.6%	16.2%	60.6%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	62.6%	28.0%	59.6%	16.2%	60.6%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	62.6%	28.0%	59.6%	16.2%	60.6%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00	62.6%	28.0%	59.6%	16.2%	60.6%
2026-10-15T00:14:38+00:00	62.6%	28.0%	59.6%	16.2%	60.6%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	62.6%	28.0%	59.6%	16.2%	60.6%
2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00	65.6%	28.0%	59.6%	16.2%	60.6%
2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00	65.6%	28.0%	59.6%	16.2%	60.6%
2026-10-15T03:16:35+00:00	65.6%	28.0%	59.6%	16.2%	60.6%
2026-10-19T04:30:20+00:00	79.2%	48.8%	86.4%	55.4%	33.6%
2026-10-19T05:16:54+00:00	79.2%	48.8%	89.8%	55.4%	33.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	79.2%	48.8%	89.8%	55.4%	33.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	79.2%	48.8%	89.8%	55.4%	33.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	69.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	68.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	66.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	65.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	34%	64.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗