KDCA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

79%

55%

49%

34%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 61.7¢Risks 61.70u

ICONNO 38.3¢Risks 38.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +38.30u · ICON −38.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	96.3%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	92.0%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	36.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	0.3%	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	—	—	—	45.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	27.3%	—	—	58.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	54.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	13.2%	56.7%	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	56.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	15.3%	52.8%	21.4%	—	48.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	52.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	58.7%	44.2%	69.0%	—	47.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	73.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	64.2%	77.8%	60.6%	—	43.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	76.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	64.8%	73.2%	17.9%	—	24.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	0.7%	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	33.8%	41.7%	67.8%	2.5%	—	15.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	37.4%	23.9%	61.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	50.9%	47.4%	0.1%	—	17.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	40.2%	46.4%	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	53.7%	40.9%	32.2%	—	13.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.9%	46.2%	27.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	44.2%	14.7%	26.3%	—	2.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	52.0%	0.0%	—	—	5.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	39.8%	53.1%	13.4%	32.1%	—	21.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	59.5%	33.5%	—	—	30.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	44.5%	39.2%	51.1%	0.0%	37.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	45.5%	51.1%	0.0%	—	45.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	44.2%	51.2%	65.9%	12.7%	44.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	47.6%	59.5%	40.5%	65.3%	—	41.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	58.7%	48.8%	64.6%	0.0%	42.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	48.7%	48.7%	59.0%	—	31.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	44.6%	47.3%	46.0%	48.7%	10.7%	36.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	62.3%	48.6%	48.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	55.8%	52.9%	51.4%	37.2%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	69.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	68.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	66.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	65.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	34%	64.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗