KDCA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

34%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 21.4¢Risks 21.40u

EPSNO 78.6¢Risks 78.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +78.60u · EPS −78.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:02:38+00:00	30.9%	0.9%	36.8%	15.6%	10.4%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	30.9%	0.9%	36.8%	15.6%	10.4%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	30.9%	0.9%	36.8%	15.6%	10.4%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	30.9%	0.9%	36.8%	15.6%	10.4%
2026-10-13T11:05:09+00:00	30.9%	0.3%	32.9%	15.6%	10.4%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	30.9%	0.3%	32.9%	15.6%	10.4%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	30.9%	0.3%	32.9%	15.6%	10.4%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	30.9%	0.3%	32.9%	15.6%	10.4%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	24.4%	0.3%	32.9%	15.6%	10.4%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	24.4%	0.3%	32.9%	15.6%	10.4%
2026-10-13T15:41:15+00:00	24.4%	0.3%	32.9%	15.6%	10.4%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	24.4%	0.3%	32.9%	15.6%	10.4%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	36.1%	0.3%	29.4%	15.6%	44.8%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	36.1%	0.3%	29.4%	15.6%	44.8%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	36.1%	0.3%	29.4%	15.6%	44.8%
2026-10-13T21:42:57+00:00	36.1%	0.3%	29.4%	15.6%	44.8%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	36.1%	0.3%	29.4%	11.2%	44.8%
2026-10-13T23:13:32+00:00	36.1%	0.3%	45.2%	11.2%	44.8%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	36.1%	0.3%	45.2%	11.2%	44.8%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	36.1%	0.3%	45.2%	11.2%	44.8%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	13.5%	0.3%	45.2%	11.2%	44.8%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	13.5%	0.3%	45.2%	11.2%	44.8%
2026-10-14T02:59:29+00:00	13.5%	0.3%	45.2%	11.2%	44.8%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	13.5%	0.3%	45.2%	11.2%	44.8%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	13.5%	0.3%	45.2%	11.2%	44.8%
2026-10-14T05:15:50+00:00	13.5%	0.3%	45.2%	11.2%	44.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00	13.5%	0.3%	45.2%	11.2%	44.8%
2026-10-14T06:46:09+00:00	13.5%	0.3%	45.2%	11.2%	44.8%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	12.9%	0.3%	45.2%	11.2%	34.6%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	12.9%	0.3%	45.2%	11.2%	34.6%
2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00	12.9%	0.3%	45.2%	11.2%	34.6%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	12.9%	0.3%	45.2%	11.2%	34.6%
2026-10-14T10:32:10+00:00	12.9%	0.3%	45.2%	3.7%	34.6%
2026-10-14T11:20:32+00:00	12.9%	0.2%	12.4%	3.7%	34.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	12.9%	0.2%	12.4%	3.7%	34.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	12.9%	0.2%	12.4%	3.7%	34.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	8.1%	0.2%	12.4%	3.7%	34.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	8.8%	0.2%	12.8%	3.8%	34.6%
2026-10-14T15:12:01+00:00	8.8%	0.2%	12.8%	3.8%	34.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00	8.8%	0.2%	12.8%	3.8%	34.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	8.8%	0.2%	12.8%	3.8%	34.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	8.8%	0.2%	7.8%	3.8%	34.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	8.8%	0.2%	7.8%	3.8%	34.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	8.8%	0.2%	7.8%	3.8%	34.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	28.3%	0.2%	7.8%	7.0%	37.2%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	28.3%	0.2%	7.8%	7.0%	37.2%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	28.3%	0.2%	7.8%	7.0%	37.2%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	28.3%	0.2%	7.8%	7.0%	37.2%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	28.3%	0.2%	7.8%	7.0%	37.2%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00	28.3%	0.2%	12.4%	7.0%	37.2%
2026-10-15T00:14:38+00:00	28.3%	0.2%	12.4%	7.0%	37.2%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	28.3%	0.2%	12.4%	7.0%	37.2%
2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00	25.8%	0.2%	12.4%	7.0%	37.2%
2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00	25.8%	0.2%	12.4%	7.0%	37.2%
2026-10-15T03:16:35+00:00	25.8%	0.2%	12.4%	7.0%	37.2%
2026-10-15T04:01:47+00:00	25.8%	0.2%	12.4%	7.0%	37.2%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	25.8%	0.2%	12.4%	7.0%	37.2%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	25.8%	0.2%	26.7%	7.0%	37.2%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	25.8%	0.2%	26.7%	7.0%	37.2%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	25.8%	0.2%	26.7%	7.0%	37.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	12.6%	0.4%	23.3%	7.3%	24.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00	12.6%	0.4%	23.3%	7.3%	24.2%
2026-10-15T18:35:54+00:00	12.6%	0.4%	23.3%	7.3%	24.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00	12.6%	0.4%	23.3%	7.3%	24.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	8.6%	0.4%	23.3%	11.3%	32.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	8.6%	0.4%	23.3%	11.3%	32.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	8.6%	0.4%	23.3%	11.3%	32.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	8.6%	0.4%	23.3%	11.3%	32.0%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	8.6%	0.4%	18.4%	11.3%	32.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	8.5%	0.4%	18.4%	11.3%	32.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	8.5%	0.4%	18.4%	11.3%	32.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	24.7%	0.4%	18.4%	11.3%	32.0%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	24.7%	0.4%	18.4%	11.3%	32.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:26+00:00	24.7%	0.4%	18.4%	11.3%	32.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	24.7%	0.4%	18.4%	11.3%	32.0%
2026-10-16T04:23:51+00:00	24.7%	0.4%	18.4%	11.3%	32.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	24.7%	0.4%	17.1%	11.3%	32.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:48+00:00	24.7%	0.4%	17.1%	11.3%	32.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	24.7%	0.4%	17.1%	11.3%	32.0%
2026-10-16T13:27:59+00:00	22.9%	0.3%	7.7%	5.7%	19.4%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	22.9%	0.3%	7.7%	5.7%	19.4%
2026-10-16T15:05:09+00:00	22.9%	0.3%	7.7%	5.7%	19.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	22.9%	0.3%	7.7%	5.7%	19.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:04+00:00	22.9%	0.3%	7.7%	5.7%	19.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	22.9%	0.3%	26.8%	5.7%	19.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	22.9%	0.3%	26.8%	5.7%	19.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	22.9%	0.3%	26.8%	5.7%	19.4%
2026-10-16T19:36:51+00:00	32.3%	0.3%	26.8%	5.7%	12.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	32.3%	0.3%	26.8%	5.7%	12.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	32.3%	0.3%	26.8%	5.7%	12.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	32.3%	0.3%	26.8%	5.7%	12.9%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	32.3%	0.3%	26.8%	6.4%	12.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:16+00:00	32.3%	0.3%	39.4%	6.4%	12.9%
2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00	32.3%	0.3%	39.4%	6.4%	12.9%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	32.3%	0.3%	39.4%	6.4%	12.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	33.9%	0.3%	39.4%	6.4%	12.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	33.9%	0.3%	39.4%	6.4%	12.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	33.9%	0.3%	39.4%	6.4%	12.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	33.9%	0.3%	39.4%	6.4%	12.9%
2026-10-17T04:40:57+00:00	33.9%	0.3%	39.4%	6.4%	12.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:11+00:00	33.9%	0.3%	39.4%	6.4%	12.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	33.9%	0.3%	42.5%	6.4%	12.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	33.9%	0.3%	42.5%	6.4%	12.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	42%	76.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	75.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	13%	72.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	69.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	63.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	65.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261020-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Washington runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗