KDCA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

86%

67%

58%

48%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 71.1¢Risks 71.10u

HRESNO 28.9¢Risks 28.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +28.90u · HRES −28.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:33:40+00:00	94.5%	65.5%	93.0%	64.8%	64.8%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	94.5%	65.5%	93.0%	64.8%	64.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	94.5%	65.5%	96.7%	64.8%	64.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00	94.5%	65.5%	96.7%	64.8%	64.8%
2026-10-15T18:35:54+00:00	94.5%	65.5%	96.7%	64.8%	64.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00	94.5%	65.5%	96.7%	64.8%	64.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	31.5%	65.5%	96.7%	72.8%	83.8%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	31.5%	65.5%	96.7%	72.8%	83.8%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	31.5%	65.5%	96.7%	72.8%	83.8%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	31.5%	65.5%	96.7%	72.8%	83.8%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	31.5%	65.5%	93.8%	72.8%	83.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	31.5%	65.5%	93.8%	72.8%	83.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	31.5%	65.5%	93.8%	72.8%	83.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	60.2%	65.5%	93.8%	72.8%	83.8%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	60.2%	65.5%	93.8%	72.8%	83.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:26+00:00	60.2%	65.5%	93.8%	72.8%	83.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	60.2%	65.5%	93.8%	72.8%	83.8%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	86.2%	79.8%	92.6%	50.0%	68.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	86.2%	79.8%	92.6%	50.0%	68.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	86.2%	79.8%	86.4%	50.0%	68.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	86.2%	79.8%	86.4%	50.0%	68.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	86.2%	79.8%	86.4%	50.0%	68.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00	86.2%	79.8%	86.4%	50.0%	68.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:08+00:00	81.4%	79.8%	86.4%	46.0%	45.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	81.4%	79.8%	86.4%	46.0%	45.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	81.4%	79.8%	86.4%	46.0%	45.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	81.4%	79.8%	86.4%	46.0%	45.1%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	81.4%	79.8%	78.9%	46.0%	45.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:09+00:00	81.4%	79.8%	78.9%	46.0%	45.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	81.4%	79.8%	78.9%	46.0%	45.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	81.4%	79.8%	78.9%	46.0%	45.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:10+00:00	84.2%	79.8%	78.9%	46.0%	45.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	84.2%	79.8%	78.9%	46.0%	45.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:26+00:00	84.2%	79.8%	78.9%	46.0%	45.1%
2026-10-19T04:30:20+00:00	83.2%	57.3%	88.8%	39.4%	61.8%
2026-10-19T05:16:54+00:00	83.2%	57.3%	94.9%	39.4%	61.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	83.2%	57.3%	94.9%	39.4%	61.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	83.2%	57.3%	94.9%	39.4%	61.8%
2026-10-19T07:32:36+00:00	86.1%	57.3%	94.9%	39.4%	63.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	86.1%	57.3%	94.9%	39.4%	63.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	86.1%	57.3%	94.9%	39.4%	63.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00	86.1%	57.3%	94.9%	39.4%	63.2%
2026-10-19T10:34:55+00:00	86.1%	57.3%	94.9%	39.4%	63.2%
2026-10-19T11:20:36+00:00	86.1%	62.6%	94.3%	39.4%	63.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:27+00:00	86.1%	62.6%	94.3%	39.4%	63.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	86.1%	62.6%	94.3%	39.4%	63.2%
2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00	83.8%	62.6%	94.3%	39.4%	63.2%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	83.9%	62.6%	94.3%	39.4%	63.2%
2026-10-19T15:13:14+00:00	83.9%	63.9%	94.3%	39.4%	63.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	83.9%	63.9%	94.3%	39.4%	63.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:12+00:00	83.9%	63.9%	94.3%	39.4%	63.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	83.9%	63.9%	93.9%	39.4%	63.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	83.9%	63.9%	93.9%	39.4%	63.2%
2026-10-19T18:59:47+00:00	83.9%	63.9%	93.9%	39.4%	63.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	83.9%	63.9%	93.9%	41.3%	51.1%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	83.9%	63.9%	93.9%	41.3%	51.1%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	83.9%	63.9%	93.9%	41.3%	51.1%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	83.9%	63.9%	93.9%	41.3%	51.1%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	83.9%	63.9%	93.9%	41.3%	51.1%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	83.9%	63.9%	93.5%	41.3%	51.1%
2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00	83.9%	63.9%	93.5%	41.3%	51.1%
2026-10-20T01:02:33+00:00	83.9%	63.9%	93.5%	41.3%	51.1%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	86.7%	63.9%	93.5%	41.3%	51.1%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	86.7%	63.9%	93.5%	41.3%	51.1%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	86.7%	63.9%	93.5%	41.3%	51.1%
2026-10-20T04:03:50+00:00	86.7%	63.9%	93.5%	41.3%	51.1%
2026-10-20T04:51:12+00:00	86.7%	63.9%	93.5%	41.3%	51.1%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00	86.7%	63.9%	93.5%	41.3%	51.1%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	86.7%	63.9%	93.5%	41.3%	51.1%
2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00	86.7%	63.9%	93.5%	41.3%	51.1%
2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00	86.3%	63.9%	93.5%	41.3%	57.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00	86.3%	63.9%	93.5%	41.3%	57.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:16+00:00	86.3%	63.9%	93.5%	41.3%	57.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00	86.3%	63.9%	93.5%	41.3%	57.8%
2026-10-20T10:52:59+00:00	86.3%	66.7%	94.3%	47.9%	57.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00	86.3%	66.7%	94.3%	47.9%	57.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	86.3%	66.7%	94.3%	47.9%	57.8%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	86.3%	66.7%	94.3%	47.9%	57.8%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00	86.4%	66.7%	94.3%	47.9%	57.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	70.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	91%	67.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	69.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	67%	66.9°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	58%	66.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	65.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261021-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗