KDCA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

86%

70%

58%

48%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 71.1¢Risks 71.10u

HRESNO 28.9¢Risks 28.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +28.90u · HRES −28.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	—	—	—	79.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	—	—	—	—	70.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	47.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	70.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	26.4%	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	82.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	60.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	92.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	84.3%	—	31.3%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	79.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	90.1%	—	89.0%	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	91.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	48.0%	87.5%	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	77.1%	—	86.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	65.7%	67.0%	75.9%	18.9%	—	45.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	43.4%	60.8%	48.5%	—	55.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	80.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	74.2%	62.7%	83.1%	—	56.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	82.1%	54.8%	72.6%	—	24.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	20.7%	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	71.4%	32.2%	66.2%	—	37.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	62.6%	50.9%	53.4%	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	55.2%	52.6%	62.1%	—	33.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	50.9%	61.5%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	29.7%	57.3%	51.8%	—	27.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	43.4%	51.9%	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	51.9%	56.8%	61.5%	48.0%	—	22.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	55.0%	37.2%	57.0%	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	55.1%	56.1%	33.0%	—	21.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	59.5%	46.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	65.9%	51.1%	44.5%	—	23.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	59.0%	48.9%	1.2%	—	20.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	54.6%	52.3%	32.0%	1.9%	22.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	61.9%	64.1%	54.8%	34.7%	—	26.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	59.9%	72.4%	59.9%	43.8%	37.7%	29.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	61.5%	44.9%	—	29.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	70.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	69.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	83%	67.0°F	1.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	70%	67.2°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	58%	66.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	65.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261021-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗