KDCA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

75%

71%

44%

23%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 55.8¢Risks 55.80u

EPSNO 44.2¢Risks 44.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.20u · EPS −44.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:01:47+00:00	74.5%	51.2%	81.0%	35.3%	69.6%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	74.5%	51.2%	81.0%	35.3%	69.6%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	74.5%	51.2%	85.9%	35.3%	69.6%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	74.5%	51.2%	85.9%	35.3%	69.6%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	74.5%	51.2%	85.9%	35.3%	69.6%
2026-10-15T07:48:56+00:00	46.3%	51.2%	85.9%	53.0%	53.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	46.3%	51.2%	85.9%	53.0%	53.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:18+00:00	46.3%	51.2%	85.9%	53.0%	53.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:03+00:00	46.3%	51.2%	85.9%	53.0%	53.9%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	46.3%	51.2%	85.9%	53.0%	53.9%
2026-10-15T11:39:05+00:00	46.3%	51.2%	85.3%	53.0%	53.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	46.3%	38.8%	85.3%	53.0%	53.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:05+00:00	46.3%	38.8%	85.3%	53.0%	53.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	89.0%	38.8%	85.3%	53.0%	53.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	89.0%	38.8%	85.3%	53.0%	53.9%
2026-10-16T04:23:51+00:00	45.6%	43.2%	86.7%	61.9%	75.9%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	45.6%	43.2%	78.0%	61.9%	75.9%
2026-10-16T05:55:48+00:00	45.6%	43.2%	78.0%	61.9%	75.9%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	45.6%	43.2%	78.0%	61.9%	75.9%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	13.8%	43.2%	78.0%	61.9%	81.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	13.8%	43.2%	78.0%	61.9%	81.2%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	13.8%	43.2%	78.0%	61.9%	81.2%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	13.8%	43.2%	78.0%	61.9%	81.2%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	13.8%	43.2%	78.0%	61.9%	81.2%
2026-10-16T11:12:04+00:00	13.8%	22.1%	72.8%	61.9%	81.2%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	13.8%	22.1%	72.8%	61.9%	81.2%
2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00	13.8%	22.1%	72.8%	61.9%	81.2%
2026-10-16T13:27:59+00:00	37.4%	22.1%	72.8%	32.0%	81.2%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	37.4%	22.1%	72.8%	32.0%	81.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:09+00:00	37.4%	22.8%	72.8%	32.0%	81.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	37.4%	22.8%	72.8%	32.0%	81.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:04+00:00	37.4%	22.8%	72.8%	32.0%	81.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	37.4%	22.8%	86.3%	32.0%	81.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	37.4%	22.8%	86.3%	32.0%	81.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	37.4%	22.8%	86.3%	32.0%	81.1%
2026-10-16T19:36:51+00:00	74.7%	22.8%	86.3%	32.0%	71.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	74.7%	22.8%	86.3%	32.0%	71.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	74.7%	22.8%	86.3%	32.0%	71.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	74.7%	22.8%	86.3%	32.0%	71.4%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	74.7%	22.8%	86.3%	43.8%	71.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:16+00:00	74.7%	22.8%	88.8%	43.8%	71.4%
2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00	74.7%	22.8%	88.8%	43.8%	71.4%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	74.7%	22.8%	88.8%	43.8%	71.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	75.3%	22.8%	88.8%	43.8%	71.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	75.3%	22.8%	88.8%	43.8%	71.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	75.3%	22.8%	88.8%	43.8%	71.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	75.3%	22.8%	88.8%	43.8%	71.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	89%	72.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	70.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	71%	70.9°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	66.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	66.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	23%	64.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261021-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 68°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗