KDCA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

75%

71%

44%

23%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 55.8¢Risks 55.80u

EPSNO 44.2¢Risks 44.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.20u · EPS −44.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	—	—	—	60.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	36.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	60.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	17.7%	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	73.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	86.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	21.1%	—	—	55.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	69.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	81.5%	—	—	62.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	84.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	34.8%	79.2%	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	77.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	53.5%	63.8%	10.9%	—	31.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	29.7%	46.4%	34.3%	—	40.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	60.6%	47.7%	71.7%	—	40.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	20.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	69.8%	39.0%	57.9%	—	14.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	11.0%	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	45.0%	55.8%	18.9%	50.0%	—	23.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	34.2%	36.6%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	26.9%	37.9%	35.4%	44.8%	—	19.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	33.4%	43.7%	—	—	14.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	33.9%	16.0%	39.1%	33.9%	—	14.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	26.1%	33.5%	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	37.6%	42.3%	29.6%	—	10.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	35.3%	20.4%	37.2%	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	34.9%	35.9%	17.0%	—	9.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	38.5%	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	44.5%	30.1%	24.7%	—	10.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	36.7%	27.6%	0.2%	—	8.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	32.0%	30.0%	14.7%	0.4%	9.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	38.1%	40.5%	31.4%	16.0%	—	10.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	48.8%	35.4%	21.7%	17.4%	12.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	36.1%	21.9%	—	11.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	89%	72.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	70.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	71%	70.9°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	66.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	66.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	23%	64.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261021-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 68°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗