KDCA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

96%

80%

71%

67%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 82.0¢Risks 82.00u

HRESNO 18.0¢Risks 18.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +18.00u · HRES −18.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:40:59+00:00	63.0%	49.0%	98.1%	70.2%	68.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:11+00:00	63.0%	49.0%	98.1%	70.2%	68.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	63.0%	49.0%	97.8%	70.2%	68.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	63.0%	49.0%	97.8%	70.2%	68.3%
2026-10-17T07:43:58+00:00	91.2%	49.0%	97.8%	62.2%	84.1%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	91.2%	49.0%	97.8%	62.2%	84.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:00	91.2%	49.0%	97.8%	62.2%	84.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	91.2%	49.0%	97.8%	62.2%	84.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	91.2%	49.0%	97.8%	62.2%	84.1%
2026-10-17T11:31:59+00:00	91.2%	69.6%	98.9%	62.2%	84.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	91.2%	69.6%	98.9%	62.2%	84.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	91.2%	69.6%	98.9%	62.2%	84.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:46+00:00	96.2%	69.6%	98.9%	62.2%	84.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	96.2%	69.6%	98.9%	62.2%	83.7%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	96.2%	70.6%	98.9%	62.2%	83.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	96.2%	70.6%	98.9%	62.2%	83.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	96.2%	70.6%	98.2%	62.2%	83.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	96.2%	70.6%	98.2%	62.2%	83.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	96.2%	70.6%	98.2%	62.2%	83.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00	96.2%	70.6%	98.2%	62.2%	83.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:08+00:00	96.8%	70.6%	98.2%	67.3%	80.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	96.8%	70.6%	98.2%	67.3%	80.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	96.8%	70.6%	98.2%	67.3%	80.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	96.8%	70.6%	98.2%	67.3%	80.2%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	96.8%	70.6%	95.6%	67.3%	80.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	96.8%	70.6%	95.6%	67.3%	80.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	96.8%	70.6%	95.6%	67.3%	80.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	96.8%	70.6%	95.6%	67.3%	80.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:10+00:00	96.7%	70.6%	95.6%	67.3%	80.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	96.7%	70.6%	95.6%	67.3%	80.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:26+00:00	96.7%	70.6%	95.6%	67.3%	80.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	97%	72.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	96%	70.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	80%	68.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	71%	65.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	66.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	64.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261022-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 17 · 04:40 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 64°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗