KDCA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

96%

80%

71%

67%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 82.0¢Risks 82.00u

HRESNO 18.0¢Risks 18.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +18.00u · HRES −18.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	—	—	—	78.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	84.0%	—	62.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	77.5%	—	—	—	—	72.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	84.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	95.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	95.2%	—	—	74.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	94.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	85.9%	—	—	60.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	79.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.7%	31.1%	64.5%	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	78.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	87.4%	63.1%	69.5%	—	56.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	84.8%	16.5%	59.4%	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	26.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	47.7%	21.1%	83.1%	—	43.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	74.5%	69.8%	85.5%	—	50.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	85.6%	21.2%	75.0%	—	—	45.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	87.5%	70.0%	76.8%	77.5%	—	57.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	87.7%	65.8%	77.4%	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	89.5%	87.4%	81.0%	70.9%	—	60.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	89.2%	83.4%	86.0%	—	—	58.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	88.5%	80.4%	83.4%	62.7%	—	59.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	88.7%	77.6%	78.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	82.9%	81.7%	70.4%	—	66.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	83.6%	82.3%	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	87.2%	78.1%	84.9%	59.2%	—	67.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	87.9%	92.0%	88.9%	—	—	69.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	89.6%	92.7%	89.6%	76.2%	58.7%	70.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	89.8%	—	87.1%	1.2%	—	68.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	97%	72.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	96%	70.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	80%	68.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	71%	65.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	66.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	64.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261022-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 17 · 04:40 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 64°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗