KDCA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

93%

76%

52%

46%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 71.8¢Risks 71.75u

EPSNO 28.2¢Risks 28.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +28.25u · EPS −28.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:23:51+00:00	41.7%	67.5%	72.3%	26.2%	82.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	41.7%	67.5%	67.5%	26.2%	82.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:48+00:00	41.7%	67.5%	67.5%	26.2%	82.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	41.7%	67.5%	67.5%	26.2%	82.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	42.6%	67.5%	67.5%	26.2%	84.4%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	42.6%	67.5%	67.5%	26.2%	84.4%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	42.6%	67.5%	67.5%	26.2%	84.4%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	42.6%	67.5%	67.5%	26.2%	84.4%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	42.6%	67.5%	67.5%	26.2%	84.4%
2026-10-16T11:12:04+00:00	42.6%	29.1%	75.3%	26.2%	84.4%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	42.6%	29.1%	75.3%	26.2%	84.4%
2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00	42.6%	29.1%	75.3%	26.2%	84.4%
2026-10-16T13:27:59+00:00	28.9%	29.1%	75.3%	24.8%	84.4%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	29.0%	29.1%	75.3%	24.8%	84.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:09+00:00	29.0%	29.6%	75.3%	24.8%	84.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	29.0%	29.6%	75.3%	24.8%	84.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:04+00:00	29.0%	29.6%	75.3%	24.8%	84.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	29.0%	29.6%	87.6%	24.8%	84.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	29.0%	29.6%	87.6%	24.8%	84.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	29.0%	29.6%	87.6%	24.8%	84.7%
2026-10-16T19:36:51+00:00	33.5%	29.6%	87.6%	24.8%	57.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	33.5%	29.6%	87.6%	24.8%	57.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	33.5%	29.6%	87.6%	24.8%	57.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	33.5%	29.6%	87.6%	24.8%	57.8%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	33.5%	29.6%	87.6%	59.0%	57.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:16+00:00	33.5%	29.6%	95.0%	59.0%	57.8%
2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00	33.5%	29.6%	95.0%	59.0%	57.8%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	33.5%	29.6%	95.0%	59.0%	57.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	48.5%	29.6%	95.0%	59.0%	57.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	48.5%	29.6%	95.0%	59.0%	57.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	48.5%	29.6%	95.0%	59.0%	57.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	48.5%	29.6%	95.0%	59.0%	57.8%
2026-10-18T04:13:39+00:00	92.4%	48.9%	88.8%	54.1%	69.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	92.4%	48.9%	96.2%	54.1%	69.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	92.4%	48.9%	96.2%	54.1%	69.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	92.4%	48.9%	96.2%	54.1%	69.9%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	92.4%	48.9%	96.2%	54.1%	69.9%
2026-10-18T08:00:49+00:00	94.7%	48.9%	96.2%	64.8%	84.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	94.7%	48.9%	96.2%	64.8%	84.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	94.7%	48.9%	96.2%	64.8%	84.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	94.7%	48.9%	96.2%	64.8%	84.2%
2026-10-18T11:02:33+00:00	94.7%	54.4%	97.3%	64.8%	84.2%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	94.7%	54.4%	97.3%	64.8%	84.2%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	94.7%	54.4%	97.3%	64.8%	84.2%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	94.7%	54.4%	97.3%	64.8%	84.2%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	93.9%	54.4%	97.3%	64.8%	84.2%
2026-10-18T14:55:31+00:00	93.9%	54.4%	97.3%	64.8%	84.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	93.9%	46.0%	97.3%	64.8%	84.2%
2026-10-18T16:26:46+00:00	93.9%	46.0%	97.3%	64.8%	84.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:03+00:00	93.9%	46.0%	97.2%	64.8%	84.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:15+00:00	93.9%	46.0%	97.2%	64.8%	84.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	93.9%	46.0%	97.2%	64.8%	84.2%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	93.4%	46.0%	97.2%	52.4%	75.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	93.4%	46.0%	97.2%	52.4%	75.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	93.4%	46.0%	97.2%	52.4%	75.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	93.4%	46.0%	97.2%	52.4%	75.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	93.4%	46.0%	97.2%	52.4%	75.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	93.4%	46.0%	97.5%	52.4%	75.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	93.4%	46.0%	97.5%	52.4%	75.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	93.4%	46.0%	97.5%	52.4%	75.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:28+00:00	92.8%	46.0%	97.5%	52.4%	75.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	92.8%	46.0%	97.5%	52.4%	75.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:52+00:00	92.8%	46.0%	97.5%	52.4%	75.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:02+00:00	92.8%	46.0%	97.5%	52.4%	75.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	72.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	93%	72.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	76%	68.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	65.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	65.2°F	3.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261022-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 16 · 04:23 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗