KDCA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

93%

76%

52%

46%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 71.8¢Risks 71.75u

EPSNO 28.2¢Risks 28.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +28.25u · EPS −28.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	69.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	71.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	51.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	—	—	—	62.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	92.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	60.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	—	—	—	71.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	91.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	91.2%	—	—	63.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	87.9%	—	90.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	—	77.4%	—	—	47.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	68.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	37.4%	20.3%	51.3%	—	—	48.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	62.9%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	78.6%	49.3%	56.3%	—	42.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	20.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	74.6%	9.0%	44.9%	—	21.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	33.0%	11.8%	71.7%	—	29.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	19.5%	—	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	60.3%	54.8%	74.5%	—	34.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	11.4%	60.5%	—	—	30.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	54.2%	62.3%	63.1%	—	40.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	76.7%	49.1%	62.6%	—	—	42.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	75.9%	67.0%	54.4%	—	43.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	78.5%	69.8%	73.6%	—	—	41.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	77.0%	65.3%	69.5%	44.5%	—	40.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	76.9%	61.2%	62.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	69.6%	67.8%	66.1%	51.9%	—	47.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	68.3%	66.5%	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	73.2%	60.2%	69.7%	38.8%	—	46.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	73.8%	81.0%	75.5%	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	76.2%	81.7%	76.2%	56.5%	37.1%	50.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	71.4%	0.2%	—	46.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	72.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	93%	72.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	76%	68.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	65.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	65.2°F	3.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261022-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 16 · 04:23 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗