KDCA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

67%

64%

26%

12%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 46.9¢Risks 46.95u

HRESNO 53.0¢Risks 53.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +53.05u · HRES −53.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T04:03:50+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:55:31+00:00	75.4%	71.1%	92.8%	18.9%	67.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	75.4%	62.2%	92.8%	18.9%	67.0%
2026-10-18T16:26:46+00:00	75.4%	62.2%	92.8%	18.9%	67.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:03+00:00	75.4%	62.2%	90.1%	18.9%	67.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:15+00:00	75.4%	62.2%	90.1%	18.9%	67.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	75.4%	62.2%	90.1%	18.9%	67.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	79.0%	62.2%	90.1%	21.3%	51.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	79.0%	62.2%	90.1%	21.3%	51.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	79.0%	62.2%	90.1%	21.3%	51.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	79.0%	62.2%	90.1%	21.3%	51.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	79.0%	62.2%	90.1%	21.3%	51.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	79.0%	62.2%	89.7%	21.3%	51.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	79.0%	62.2%	89.7%	21.3%	51.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	79.0%	62.2%	89.7%	21.3%	51.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:28+00:00	76.6%	62.2%	89.7%	21.3%	51.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	76.6%	62.2%	89.7%	21.3%	51.3%
2026-10-19T02:59:52+00:00	76.6%	62.2%	89.7%	21.3%	51.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:02+00:00	76.6%	62.2%	89.7%	21.3%	51.3%
2026-10-19T04:30:21+00:00	76.6%	62.2%	89.7%	21.3%	51.3%
2026-10-19T05:16:54+00:00	76.6%	62.2%	87.9%	21.3%	51.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	76.6%	62.2%	87.9%	21.3%	51.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	76.6%	62.2%	87.9%	21.3%	51.3%
2026-10-19T07:32:36+00:00	77.7%	62.2%	87.9%	21.8%	29.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	77.7%	62.2%	87.9%	21.8%	29.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	77.7%	62.2%	87.9%	21.8%	29.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00	77.7%	62.2%	87.9%	21.8%	29.7%
2026-10-19T10:34:55+00:00	77.7%	62.2%	87.9%	21.8%	29.7%
2026-10-19T11:20:36+00:00	77.7%	65.8%	93.0%	21.8%	29.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:27+00:00	77.7%	65.8%	93.0%	21.8%	29.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	77.7%	65.8%	93.0%	21.8%	29.7%
2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00	62.0%	65.8%	93.0%	21.8%	29.7%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	62.0%	65.8%	93.0%	21.8%	29.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:14+00:00	62.0%	67.2%	93.0%	21.8%	29.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	62.0%	67.2%	93.0%	21.8%	29.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:12+00:00	62.0%	67.2%	93.0%	21.8%	29.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	62.0%	67.2%	83.3%	21.8%	29.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	62.0%	67.2%	83.3%	21.8%	29.7%
2026-10-19T18:59:47+00:00	62.0%	67.2%	83.3%	21.8%	29.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	59.5%	67.2%	83.3%	11.9%	25.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	59.5%	67.2%	83.3%	11.9%	25.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	59.5%	67.2%	83.3%	11.9%	25.6%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	59.5%	67.2%	83.3%	11.9%	25.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	59.5%	67.2%	83.3%	11.9%	25.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	59.5%	67.2%	82.0%	11.9%	25.6%
2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00	59.5%	67.2%	82.0%	11.9%	25.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:33+00:00	59.5%	67.2%	82.0%	11.9%	25.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	64.5%	67.2%	82.0%	11.9%	25.6%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	64.5%	67.2%	82.0%	11.9%	25.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	64.5%	67.2%	82.0%	11.9%	25.6%
2026-10-20T04:03:50+00:00	64.5%	67.2%	82.0%	11.9%	25.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	66.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	67%	64.7°F	2.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	65.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	63.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	26%	60.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	57.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261023-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 64°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗