KDCA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

67%

64%

26%

12%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 46.9¢Risks 46.95u

HRESNO 53.0¢Risks 53.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +53.05u · HRES −53.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	92.6%	—	—	—	—	76.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	95.4%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	95.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	—	—	—	79.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	89.3%	—	55.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	38.4%	—	—	78.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	71.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	—	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	85.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	13.9%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	76.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	13.4%	—	—	65.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	73.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	82.4%	40.6%	64.5%	—	—	52.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	72.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	44.4%	81.6%	67.7%	—	62.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	77.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	67.0%	63.6%	69.6%	—	42.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	16.0%	70.4%	51.5%	—	35.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	72.8%	—	—	25.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	50.0%	71.2%	58.7%	—	27.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	45.9%	23.1%	41.9%	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	30.0%	78.1%	41.7%	—	18.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	47.4%	21.4%	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	47.4%	17.2%	58.7%	43.0%	—	11.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	17.2%	52.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	26.6%	12.9%	50.9%	18.4%	—	5.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	23.1%	47.2%	—	—	7.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	33.9%	34.8%	38.5%	18.3%	44.2%	8.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	40.1%	—	—	7.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	66.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	67%	64.7°F	2.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	65.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	63.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	26%	60.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	57.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261023-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 64°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗