KDEN / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COLow ≤ 32°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 16 · 13:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

79%

78%

65%

53%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 73.8¢Risks 73.85u

HRESNO 26.2¢Risks 26.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +26.15u · HRES −26.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:04:08+00:00	64.3%	26.0%	63.1%	43.6%	41.3%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	64.3%	26.0%	63.1%	43.6%	41.3%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	64.3%	26.0%	63.1%	43.6%	41.3%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	64.3%	26.0%	63.1%	43.6%	41.3%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	64.3%	26.0%	63.1%	43.6%	41.3%
2026-10-13T11:50:41+00:00	64.3%	34.8%	64.3%	43.6%	41.3%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	64.3%	34.8%	64.3%	43.6%	41.3%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	64.3%	34.8%	64.3%	43.6%	41.3%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	65.2%	34.8%	64.3%	43.6%	41.3%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	65.2%	34.8%	64.3%	43.6%	41.3%
2026-10-13T15:41:50+00:00	65.2%	34.8%	64.3%	43.6%	41.3%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	65.2%	34.8%	64.3%	43.6%	41.3%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	65.2%	34.8%	64.3%	43.6%	41.3%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	65.2%	34.8%	64.3%	43.6%	41.3%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	65.2%	34.8%	64.3%	43.6%	41.3%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	65.2%	34.8%	64.3%	43.6%	41.3%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	67.8%	34.8%	64.3%	43.6%	25.5%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	67.8%	34.8%	64.3%	43.6%	25.5%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	67.8%	34.8%	64.3%	43.6%	25.5%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	67.8%	34.8%	64.3%	43.6%	25.5%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	67.8%	34.8%	71.3%	41.3%	25.5%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	67.8%	34.8%	71.3%	41.3%	25.5%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	67.8%	34.8%	71.3%	41.3%	25.5%
2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00	80.3%	34.8%	71.3%	41.3%	25.5%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	80.3%	34.8%	71.3%	41.3%	25.5%
2026-10-14T03:00:01+00:00	80.3%	34.8%	71.3%	41.3%	25.5%
2026-10-14T03:45:36+00:00	80.3%	34.8%	71.3%	41.3%	25.5%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	80.3%	34.8%	71.3%	41.3%	25.5%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	80.3%	34.8%	71.3%	41.3%	25.5%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	80.3%	34.8%	71.3%	41.3%	25.5%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	80.3%	34.8%	71.3%	41.3%	25.5%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	84.1%	34.8%	71.3%	41.3%	44.6%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	84.1%	34.8%	71.3%	41.3%	44.6%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	84.1%	34.8%	71.3%	41.3%	44.6%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	84.1%	34.8%	71.3%	41.3%	44.6%
2026-10-14T10:34:19+00:00	84.1%	34.8%	71.3%	46.1%	44.6%
2026-10-14T11:20:58+00:00	84.1%	86.7%	74.2%	46.1%	44.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	84.1%	86.7%	74.2%	46.1%	44.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	84.1%	86.7%	74.2%	46.1%	44.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	88.3%	86.7%	74.2%	46.1%	44.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	88.3%	86.7%	74.2%	46.1%	44.6%
2026-10-14T15:12:41+00:00	88.3%	86.7%	74.2%	46.1%	44.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	88.3%	86.7%	74.2%	46.1%	44.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	88.3%	86.7%	74.2%	46.1%	44.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	88.3%	86.7%	78.3%	46.1%	44.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	88.3%	86.7%	78.3%	46.1%	44.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	88.3%	86.7%	78.3%	46.1%	44.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:38+00:00	86.0%	86.7%	78.3%	48.1%	70.6%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	86.0%	86.7%	78.3%	48.1%	70.6%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	86.0%	86.7%	78.3%	48.1%	70.6%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	86.0%	86.7%	78.3%	48.1%	70.6%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	86.0%	86.7%	78.3%	48.1%	70.6%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	86.0%	86.7%	79.1%	48.1%	70.6%
2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00	86.0%	86.7%	79.1%	48.1%	70.6%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	86.0%	86.7%	79.1%	48.1%	70.6%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	84.1%	86.7%	79.1%	48.1%	70.6%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	84.1%	86.7%	79.1%	48.1%	70.6%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	84.1%	86.7%	79.1%	48.1%	70.6%
2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00	84.1%	86.7%	79.1%	48.1%	70.6%
2026-10-15T04:48:03+00:00	84.1%	86.7%	79.1%	48.1%	70.6%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	84.1%	86.7%	74.2%	48.1%	70.6%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	84.1%	86.7%	74.2%	48.1%	70.6%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	84.1%	86.7%	74.2%	48.1%	70.6%
2026-10-15T07:50:17+00:00	86.9%	86.7%	74.2%	52.7%	73.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	86.9%	86.7%	74.2%	52.7%	73.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	86.9%	86.7%	74.2%	52.7%	73.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:00	86.9%	86.7%	74.2%	52.7%	73.8%
2026-10-15T10:53:43+00:00	86.9%	86.7%	74.2%	52.7%	73.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00	86.9%	86.7%	69.7%	52.7%	73.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00	86.9%	89.7%	69.7%	52.7%	73.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00	86.9%	89.7%	69.7%	52.7%	73.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	85.6%	89.7%	69.7%	52.7%	73.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	85.6%	89.7%	69.7%	52.7%	73.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:00	85.6%	89.7%	69.7%	52.7%	73.8%
2026-10-15T16:20:11+00:00	85.6%	89.7%	69.7%	52.7%	73.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	85.6%	89.7%	60.7%	52.7%	73.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	85.6%	89.7%	60.7%	52.7%	73.8%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	85.6%	89.7%	60.7%	52.7%	73.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	85.6%	89.7%	60.7%	52.7%	73.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	86.9%	89.7%	60.7%	52.7%	78.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00	86.9%	89.7%	60.7%	52.7%	78.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	86.9%	89.7%	60.7%	52.7%	78.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	86.9%	89.7%	60.7%	52.7%	78.5%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	86.9%	89.7%	72.8%	52.7%	78.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	86.9%	89.7%	72.8%	52.7%	78.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	86.9%	89.7%	72.8%	52.7%	78.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	86.9%	89.7%	72.8%	52.7%	78.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	86.9%	89.7%	72.8%	52.7%	78.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	86.9%	89.7%	72.8%	52.7%	78.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	86.9%	89.7%	72.8%	52.7%	78.5%
2026-10-16T04:24:52+00:00	86.9%	89.7%	72.8%	52.7%	78.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	86.9%	89.7%	72.8%	52.7%	78.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	86.9%	89.7%	72.8%	52.7%	78.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	86.9%	89.7%	72.8%	52.7%	78.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	86.9%	89.7%	72.8%	52.7%	78.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:28+00:00	95.0%	89.7%	72.8%	52.7%	65.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	95.0%	89.7%	72.8%	52.7%	65.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	95.0%	89.7%	72.8%	52.7%	65.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	95.0%	89.7%	72.8%	52.7%	65.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00	95.0%	78.8%	78.4%	52.7%	65.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	95.0%	78.8%	78.4%	52.7%	65.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	95.0%	78.8%	78.4%	52.7%	65.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00	95.0%	78.8%	78.4%	52.7%	65.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	95%	27.9°F	2.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0025
IFS Ensemble	79%	31.3°F	1.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0449
WeatherNext 2	78%	30.3°F	2.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0467
ICON	65%	31.4°F	2.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1204
IFS HRES	53%	32.3°F	3.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.2237
NWS forecast	13%	35.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.7604

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261016-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Denver freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗