KDEN / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COLow ≤ 32°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 16 · 13:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

79%

78%

65%

53%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 73.8¢Risks 73.85u

HRESNO 26.2¢Risks 26.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +26.15u · HRES −26.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	27.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	10.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	79.1%	—	—	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	77.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	—	54.1%	—	—	10.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	91.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	31.8%	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	57.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	92.0%	—	49.4%	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	48.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	79.7%	30.0%	60.0%	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	15.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	36.2%	11.2%	18.4%	0.9%	—	8.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	61.6%	49.3%	0.1%	—	5.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	14.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	45.4%	57.6%	0.3%	—	14.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	12.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	1.5%	18.9%	0.3%	—	11.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	59.9%	8.7%	7.1%	1.2%	—	36.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	5.1%	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	9.7%	22.1%	31.4%	—	26.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	76.5%	3.1%	22.2%	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	6.6%	5.8%	47.2%	—	30.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	69.1%	17.7%	4.6%	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	56.8%	41.3%	6.8%	20.3%	—	41.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	58.0%	33.5%	10.0%	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	61.2%	24.3%	15.1%	34.0%	—	45.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	76.3%	45.8%	17.6%	—	—	63.5%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	78.7%	44.5%	41.3%	53.3%	—	70.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	84.6%	48.9%	27.6%	51.1%	—	72.4%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	72.0%	32.0%	68.0%	99.0%	72.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	80.9%	69.6%	31.4%	58.4%	—	70.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	74.4%	37.7%	69.2%	99.1%	72.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	80.9%	79.1%	31.4%	70.9%	—	72.0%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	80.9%	40.7%	68.1%	99.7%	76.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	73.5%	45.8%	75.8%	—	72.4%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	91.6%	65.5%	48.5%	44.2%	99.8%	66.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	91.4%	67.5%	56.0%	41.0%	—	63.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	51.6%	65.4%	62.4%	99.3%	75.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.9%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	95%	27.9°F	2.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0025
IFS Ensemble	79%	31.3°F	1.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0449
WeatherNext 2	78%	30.3°F	2.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0467
ICON	65%	31.4°F	2.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1204
IFS HRES	53%	32.3°F	3.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.2237
NWS forecast	13%	35.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.7604

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261016-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Denver freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗