KDEN / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

32%

30%

28%

10%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 32.3¢Risks 32.30u

WN2NO 67.7¢Risks 67.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +67.70u · WN2 −67.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T22:27:54+00:00	42.9%	37.2%	33.5%	40.6%	79.2%
2026-10-10T23:13:33+00:00	42.9%	37.2%	30.6%	40.6%	79.2%
2026-10-10T23:58:40+00:00	42.9%	37.2%	30.6%	40.6%	79.2%
2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00	42.9%	37.2%	30.6%	40.6%	79.2%
2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00	42.9%	37.2%	30.6%	40.6%	79.2%
2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00	42.9%	37.2%	30.6%	40.6%	79.2%
2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00	42.9%	37.2%	30.6%	40.6%	79.2%
2026-10-11T03:45:20+00:00	42.9%	37.2%	30.6%	40.6%	79.2%
2026-10-11T04:30:53+00:00	42.9%	37.2%	30.6%	40.6%	79.2%
2026-10-11T05:16:06+00:00	42.9%	37.2%	35.8%	40.6%	79.2%
2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00	42.9%	37.2%	35.8%	40.6%	79.2%
2026-10-11T06:46:27+00:00	42.9%	37.2%	35.8%	40.6%	79.2%
2026-10-11T07:32:31+00:00	29.1%	37.2%	35.8%	64.3%	79.2%
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00	29.1%	37.2%	35.8%	64.3%	79.2%
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00	29.1%	37.2%	35.8%	64.3%	79.2%
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00	29.1%	37.2%	35.8%	64.3%	79.2%
2026-10-11T10:34:12+00:00	29.1%	37.2%	35.8%	64.3%	79.2%
2026-10-11T11:20:10+00:00	29.1%	27.8%	22.6%	64.3%	79.2%
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	29.1%	27.8%	22.6%	64.3%	79.2%
2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:00	29.1%	27.8%	22.6%	64.3%	79.2%
2026-10-11T13:35:54+00:00	44.0%	27.8%	22.6%	64.3%	79.2%
2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00	43.2%	28.1%	22.7%	64.3%	79.2%
2026-10-11T15:12:03+00:00	43.2%	27.8%	22.7%	64.3%	79.2%
2026-10-11T15:57:20+00:00	43.2%	27.8%	22.7%	64.3%	79.2%
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	43.2%	27.8%	22.7%	64.3%	79.2%
2026-10-11T17:28:03+00:00	43.2%	27.8%	27.6%	64.3%	79.2%
2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00	43.2%	27.8%	27.6%	64.3%	79.2%
2026-10-11T18:58:20+00:00	43.2%	27.8%	27.6%	64.3%	79.2%
2026-10-11T19:43:34+00:00	19.7%	27.8%	27.6%	54.9%	31.8%
2026-10-11T20:28:41+00:00	19.7%	27.8%	27.6%	54.9%	31.8%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00	19.7%	27.8%	27.6%	54.9%	31.8%
2026-10-11T21:59:01+00:00	19.7%	27.8%	27.6%	54.9%	31.8%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00	19.7%	27.8%	27.6%	54.9%	31.8%
2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00	19.8%	27.8%	9.7%	54.9%	31.9%
2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00	19.8%	27.8%	9.7%	54.9%	31.9%
2026-10-12T01:00:15+00:00	19.8%	27.8%	9.7%	54.9%	31.9%
2026-10-12T01:45:24+00:00	30.5%	27.8%	9.7%	54.9%	31.9%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	30.5%	27.8%	9.7%	54.9%	31.9%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00	30.5%	27.8%	9.7%	54.9%	31.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	55%	71.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.2034
NWS forecast	53%	71.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 14:00	0.2172
National Blend	44%	69.0°F	10.0°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.3136
ICON	32%	67.2°F	7.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.4638
AIFS Single	30%	67.8°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.4830
IFS Ensemble	28%	66.5°F	6.8°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.5213
WeatherNext 2	10%	64.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.8154

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261017-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 71°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗