KDEN / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

32%

30%

28%

10%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 32.3¢Risks 32.30u

WN2NO 67.7¢Risks 67.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +67.70u · WN2 −67.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	6.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	22.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	39.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	65.9%	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	30.6%	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	2.1%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	19.9%	73.1%	1.0%	0.0%	—	29.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	17.5%	32.3%	—	52.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	9.7%	53.8%	44.7%	—	48.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	50.8%	57.9%	50.8%	—	43.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	43.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	21.3%	33.0%	50.8%	14.8%	—	54.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	8.2%	46.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	35.4%	23.4%	62.9%	—	49.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	72.1%	24.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	31.4%	74.9%	40.9%	74.9%	—	62.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	81.0%	63.0%	—	—	73.2%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	83.5%	76.8%	87.4%	—	75.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	88.6%	68.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	87.7%	86.1%	91.4%	—	81.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	90.4%	95.0%	—	—	82.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	91.5%	97.4%	90.1%	0.0%	85.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	35.7%	89.3%	96.5%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	93.5%	97.3%	91.5%	—	91.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	92.2%	98.4%	92.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	45.0%	92.0%	99.2%	89.4%	95.7%	91.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	93.2%	99.1%	92.8%	—	91.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	92.6%	99.2%	93.5%	97.2%	94.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	97.5%	99.6%	96.3%	—	95.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	98.1%	99.4%	96.5%	99.0%	97.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	97.6%	99.4%	98.3%	—	98.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	54.7%	96.9%	99.6%	96.3%	99.0%	96.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	41.8%	99.5%	99.8%	99.2%	—	98.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	55%	71.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.2034
NWS forecast	53%	71.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 14:00	0.2172
National Blend	44%	69.0°F	10.0°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.3136
ICON	32%	67.2°F	7.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.4638
AIFS Single	30%	67.8°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.4830
IFS Ensemble	28%	66.5°F	6.8°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.5213
WeatherNext 2	10%	64.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.8154

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261017-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 71°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗