KDEN / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 15 · 04:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

79%

67%

54%

34%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 58.9¢Risks 58.85u

WN2NO 41.1¢Risks 41.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +41.15u · WN2 −41.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:01:51+00:00	18.8%	18.8%	4.1%	42.7%	22.5%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	18.8%	18.8%	4.1%	42.7%	22.5%
2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00	18.8%	18.8%	6.2%	42.7%	22.5%
2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00	18.8%	18.8%	6.2%	42.7%	22.5%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00	18.8%	18.8%	6.2%	42.7%	22.5%
2026-10-12T07:48:54+00:00	11.0%	18.8%	6.2%	20.3%	54.7%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	11.0%	18.8%	6.2%	20.3%	54.7%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	11.0%	18.8%	6.2%	20.3%	54.7%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00	11.0%	18.8%	6.2%	20.3%	54.7%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00	11.0%	18.8%	6.2%	20.3%	54.7%
2026-10-12T11:35:39+00:00	11.0%	18.8%	4.5%	20.3%	54.7%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	11.0%	40.6%	4.5%	20.3%	54.7%
2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00	11.0%	40.6%	4.5%	20.3%	54.7%
2026-10-12T13:51:09+00:00	27.0%	40.6%	4.5%	20.3%	54.7%
2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00	27.1%	40.7%	4.5%	20.3%	54.7%
2026-10-12T15:27:41+00:00	27.1%	40.7%	4.5%	20.3%	54.7%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	27.1%	41.6%	4.5%	20.3%	54.7%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00	27.1%	41.6%	4.5%	20.3%	54.7%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	27.1%	41.6%	13.0%	20.3%	54.7%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	27.1%	41.6%	13.0%	20.3%	54.7%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	27.1%	41.6%	13.0%	20.3%	54.7%
2026-10-12T19:58:35+00:00	32.7%	41.6%	13.0%	48.6%	39.9%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	32.7%	41.6%	13.0%	48.6%	39.9%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	32.7%	41.6%	13.0%	48.6%	39.9%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	32.7%	41.6%	13.0%	48.6%	39.9%
2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:00	32.7%	41.6%	18.2%	48.6%	39.9%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	32.7%	41.6%	18.2%	48.6%	39.9%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	32.7%	41.6%	18.2%	48.6%	39.9%
2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00	32.7%	41.6%	18.2%	48.6%	39.9%
2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00	36.5%	41.6%	18.2%	48.6%	39.9%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	36.5%	41.6%	18.2%	48.6%	39.9%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	36.5%	41.6%	18.2%	48.6%	39.9%
2026-10-13T04:16:19+00:00	36.5%	41.6%	18.2%	48.6%	39.9%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	36.5%	41.6%	18.2%	48.6%	39.9%
2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00	36.5%	41.6%	23.1%	48.6%	39.9%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	36.5%	41.6%	23.1%	48.6%	39.9%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	36.5%	41.6%	23.1%	48.6%	39.9%
2026-10-13T08:04:08+00:00	42.3%	41.6%	23.1%	47.6%	33.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	42.3%	41.6%	23.1%	47.6%	33.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	42.3%	41.6%	23.1%	47.6%	33.1%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	42.3%	41.6%	23.1%	47.6%	33.1%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	42.3%	41.6%	23.1%	47.6%	33.1%
2026-10-13T11:50:41+00:00	42.3%	47.4%	34.4%	47.6%	33.1%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	42.3%	47.4%	34.4%	47.6%	33.1%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	42.3%	47.4%	34.4%	47.6%	33.1%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	50.0%	47.4%	34.3%	47.6%	33.2%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	50.0%	47.4%	34.3%	47.6%	33.2%
2026-10-13T15:41:50+00:00	50.0%	48.1%	34.3%	47.6%	33.2%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	50.0%	48.1%	34.3%	47.6%	33.2%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	50.0%	48.1%	36.3%	47.6%	33.2%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	50.0%	48.1%	36.3%	47.6%	33.2%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	50.0%	48.1%	36.3%	47.6%	33.2%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	50.0%	48.1%	36.3%	47.6%	33.2%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	45.7%	48.1%	36.3%	47.6%	69.8%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	45.7%	48.1%	36.3%	47.6%	69.8%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	45.7%	48.1%	36.3%	47.6%	69.8%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	45.7%	48.1%	36.3%	47.6%	69.8%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	45.7%	48.1%	26.8%	57.1%	69.8%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	45.7%	48.1%	26.8%	57.1%	69.8%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	45.7%	48.1%	26.8%	57.1%	69.8%
2026-10-14T01:29:12+00:00	60.3%	48.1%	26.8%	57.1%	69.8%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	60.3%	48.1%	26.8%	57.1%	69.8%
2026-10-14T03:00:01+00:00	60.3%	48.1%	26.8%	57.1%	69.8%
2026-10-14T03:45:36+00:00	60.3%	48.1%	26.8%	57.1%	69.8%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	60.3%	48.1%	26.8%	57.1%	69.8%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	60.3%	48.1%	26.8%	57.1%	69.8%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	60.3%	48.1%	26.8%	57.1%	69.8%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	60.3%	48.1%	26.8%	57.1%	69.8%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	50.9%	48.1%	26.8%	57.1%	75.2%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	50.9%	48.1%	26.8%	57.1%	75.2%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	50.9%	48.1%	26.8%	57.1%	75.2%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	50.9%	48.1%	26.8%	57.1%	75.2%
2026-10-14T10:34:20+00:00	50.9%	48.1%	26.8%	68.9%	75.2%
2026-10-14T11:20:58+00:00	50.9%	72.5%	26.7%	68.9%	75.2%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	50.9%	72.5%	26.7%	68.9%	75.2%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	50.9%	72.5%	26.7%	68.9%	75.2%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	56.5%	72.5%	26.7%	68.9%	75.2%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	56.5%	72.4%	26.7%	68.9%	75.2%
2026-10-14T15:12:41+00:00	56.5%	66.9%	26.7%	68.9%	75.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	56.5%	66.9%	26.7%	68.9%	75.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	56.5%	66.9%	26.7%	68.9%	75.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	56.5%	66.9%	36.1%	68.9%	75.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	56.5%	66.9%	36.1%	68.9%	75.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	56.5%	66.9%	36.1%	68.9%	75.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:38+00:00	50.9%	66.9%	36.1%	83.8%	79.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	50.9%	66.9%	36.1%	83.8%	79.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	50.9%	66.9%	36.1%	83.8%	79.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	50.9%	66.9%	36.1%	83.8%	79.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	50.9%	66.9%	36.1%	83.8%	79.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	50.9%	67.0%	33.9%	83.8%	79.0%
2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00	50.9%	67.0%	33.9%	83.8%	79.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	50.9%	67.0%	33.9%	83.8%	79.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	53.7%	67.0%	33.9%	83.8%	79.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	53.7%	67.0%	33.9%	83.8%	79.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	53.7%	67.0%	33.9%	83.8%	79.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00	53.7%	67.0%	33.9%	83.8%	79.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	84%	76.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0262
ICON	79%	75.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0441
IFS Ensemble	67%	74.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.1089
National Blend	56%	73.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1954
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2016
AIFS Single	54%	72.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.2144
WeatherNext 2	34%	71.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.4369

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261017-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗