KDEN / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 15 · 04:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

79%

67%

54%

34%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 58.9¢Risks 58.85u

WN2NO 41.1¢Risks 41.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +41.15u · WN2 −41.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	3.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	—	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	14.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	53.8%	—	—	28.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	20.2%	—	—	28.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	0.9%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	60.4%	0.4%	0.0%	—	18.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	9.6%	20.4%	—	37.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	34.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	4.6%	38.7%	30.3%	—	33.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	47.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	35.2%	42.1%	35.2%	—	28.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	19.5%	34.5%	7.1%	—	37.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	3.4%	30.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	20.8%	12.2%	45.6%	—	32.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	55.4%	13.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	58.2%	24.4%	58.2%	—	44.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	65.7%	44.3%	—	—	55.7%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	68.7%	59.6%	74.5%	—	57.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	75.9%	49.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	18.3%	74.1%	71.5%	80.3%	—	64.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	78.0%	86.8%	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	79.4%	91.9%	77.0%	0.0%	68.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	75.1%	89.3%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	82.5%	91.0%	78.5%	—	77.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.5%	79.2%	93.8%	79.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.7%	78.3%	96.3%	73.4%	86.3%	77.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	80.0%	95.7%	79.1%	—	77.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	78.0%	95.7%	80.0%	89.3%	81.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	27.6%	89.6%	97.3%	86.1%	—	83.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	91.1%	96.3%	86.2%	94.5%	89.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	88.8%	95.9%	91.4%	—	90.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	25.0%	85.8%	96.6%	83.9%	93.9%	84.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	95.9%	98.3%	94.2%	—	92.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	84%	76.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0262
ICON	79%	75.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0441
IFS Ensemble	67%	74.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.1089
National Blend	56%	73.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1954
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2016
AIFS Single	54%	72.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.2144
WeatherNext 2	34%	71.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.4369

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261017-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗