KDEN / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

58%

45%

33%

17%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 44.8¢Risks 44.80u

WN2NO 55.2¢Risks 55.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +55.20u · WN2 −55.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:48:03+00:00	35.5%	46.9%	15.7%	70.4%	61.9%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	35.5%	46.9%	22.0%	70.4%	61.9%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	35.5%	46.9%	22.0%	70.4%	61.9%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	35.5%	46.9%	22.0%	70.4%	61.9%
2026-10-15T07:50:17+00:00	39.4%	46.9%	22.0%	72.9%	57.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	39.4%	46.9%	22.0%	72.9%	57.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	39.4%	46.9%	22.0%	72.9%	57.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:00	39.4%	46.9%	22.0%	72.9%	57.8%
2026-10-15T10:53:43+00:00	39.4%	46.9%	22.0%	72.9%	57.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00	39.4%	46.9%	16.7%	72.9%	57.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00	39.4%	56.1%	16.7%	72.9%	57.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00	39.4%	56.1%	16.7%	72.9%	57.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	33.0%	56.1%	16.7%	72.9%	57.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	32.9%	56.0%	16.7%	72.9%	57.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:00	32.9%	45.0%	16.7%	72.9%	57.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	73%	77.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0734
National Blend	68%	76.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.1037
ICON	58%	75.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.1781
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.1954
IFS Ensemble	45%	74.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.3025
AIFS Single	33%	72.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.4502
WeatherNext 2	17%	71.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.6939

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261017-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 04:48 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗