KDEN / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

58%

45%

33%

17%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 44.8¢Risks 44.80u

WN2NO 55.2¢Risks 55.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +55.20u · WN2 −55.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	10.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	41.3%	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	12.3%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	0.3%	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	46.5%	0.1%	0.0%	—	10.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	4.8%	11.7%	—	24.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.9%	25.1%	18.4%	—	21.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	21.8%	27.4%	21.8%	—	16.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	10.1%	20.7%	3.0%	—	23.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	1.2%	17.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	10.5%	5.4%	29.1%	—	18.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	37.6%	5.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	40.0%	12.4%	40.0%	—	27.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	47.2%	26.9%	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	50.0%	40.4%	56.8%	—	38.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	58.0%	29.9%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	55.1%	52.1%	63.1%	—	43.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	59.5%	72.1%	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	60.8%	80.2%	57.6%	0.0%	47.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	54.5%	75.1%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	63.7%	77.6%	58.1%	—	57.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	58.4%	82.5%	58.4%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	56.2%	87.6%	50.0%	68.0%	55.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	57.7%	85.7%	56.4%	—	53.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	54.0%	85.1%	56.7%	71.6%	59.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	71.2%	88.9%	65.0%	—	61.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	73.2%	85.4%	64.2%	80.9%	69.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	67.5%	83.8%	72.8%	—	70.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	60.9%	84.8%	57.9%	77.4%	59.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	81.9%	90.1%	77.2%	—	71.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	73%	77.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0734
National Blend	68%	76.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.1037
ICON	58%	75.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.1781
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.1954
IFS Ensemble	45%	74.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.3025
AIFS Single	33%	72.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.4502
WeatherNext 2	17%	71.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.6939

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261017-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 04:48 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗