KDEN / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 16.2¢Risks 16.20u

WN2NO 83.8¢Risks 83.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +83.80u · WN2 −83.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T22:27:54+00:00	3.6%	11.7%	1.2%	4.9%	46.0%
2026-10-10T23:13:33+00:00	3.6%	11.7%	1.0%	4.9%	46.0%
2026-10-10T23:58:40+00:00	3.6%	11.7%	1.0%	4.9%	46.0%
2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00	3.6%	11.7%	1.0%	4.9%	46.0%
2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00	3.6%	11.7%	1.0%	4.9%	46.0%
2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00	3.6%	11.7%	1.0%	4.9%	46.0%
2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00	3.6%	11.7%	1.0%	4.9%	46.0%
2026-10-11T03:45:20+00:00	3.6%	11.7%	1.0%	4.9%	46.0%
2026-10-11T04:30:53+00:00	3.6%	11.7%	1.0%	4.9%	46.0%
2026-10-11T05:16:06+00:00	3.6%	11.7%	1.4%	4.9%	46.0%
2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00	3.6%	11.7%	1.4%	4.9%	46.0%
2026-10-11T06:46:27+00:00	3.6%	11.7%	1.4%	4.9%	46.0%
2026-10-11T07:32:31+00:00	1.2%	11.7%	1.4%	15.8%	46.0%
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00	1.2%	11.7%	1.4%	15.8%	46.0%
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00	1.2%	11.7%	1.4%	15.8%	46.0%
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00	1.2%	11.7%	1.4%	15.8%	46.0%
2026-10-11T10:34:12+00:00	1.2%	11.7%	1.4%	15.8%	46.0%
2026-10-11T11:20:10+00:00	1.2%	2.8%	0.3%	15.8%	46.0%
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	1.2%	2.8%	0.3%	15.8%	46.0%
2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:00	1.2%	2.8%	0.3%	15.8%	46.0%
2026-10-11T13:35:54+00:00	3.2%	2.8%	0.3%	15.8%	46.0%
2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00	3.1%	3.0%	0.3%	15.7%	46.0%
2026-10-11T15:12:03+00:00	3.1%	2.8%	0.3%	15.7%	46.0%
2026-10-11T15:57:20+00:00	3.1%	2.8%	0.3%	15.7%	46.0%
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	3.1%	2.8%	0.3%	15.7%	46.0%
2026-10-11T17:28:03+00:00	3.1%	2.8%	0.5%	15.7%	46.0%
2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00	3.1%	2.8%	0.5%	15.7%	46.0%
2026-10-11T18:58:20+00:00	3.1%	2.8%	0.5%	15.7%	46.0%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	2.1%	4.4%	0.2%	2.0%	14.2%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	2.1%	4.4%	0.2%	2.0%	14.2%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	2.1%	4.4%	0.2%	2.0%	14.2%
2026-10-12T19:58:35+00:00	3.0%	4.4%	0.2%	10.6%	7.4%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	3.0%	4.4%	0.2%	10.6%	7.4%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	3.0%	4.4%	0.2%	10.6%	7.4%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	3.0%	4.4%	0.2%	10.6%	7.4%
2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:00	3.0%	4.4%	0.4%	10.6%	7.4%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	3.0%	4.4%	0.4%	10.6%	7.4%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	3.0%	4.4%	0.4%	10.6%	7.4%
2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00	3.0%	4.4%	0.4%	10.6%	7.4%
2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00	3.8%	4.4%	0.4%	10.6%	7.4%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	3.8%	4.4%	0.4%	10.6%	7.4%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	3.8%	4.4%	0.4%	10.6%	7.4%
2026-10-13T04:16:19+00:00	3.8%	4.4%	0.4%	10.6%	7.4%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	3.8%	4.4%	0.4%	10.6%	7.4%
2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00	3.8%	4.4%	0.7%	10.6%	7.4%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	3.8%	4.4%	0.7%	10.6%	7.4%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	3.8%	4.4%	0.7%	10.6%	7.4%
2026-10-13T11:50:41+00:00	4.3%	11.7%	1.1%	7.2%	2.9%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	4.3%	11.7%	1.1%	7.2%	2.9%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	4.3%	11.7%	1.1%	7.2%	2.9%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	6.4%	11.7%	1.1%	7.2%	3.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	6.4%	11.7%	1.1%	7.2%	3.0%
2026-10-13T15:41:50+00:00	6.4%	12.0%	1.1%	7.2%	3.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	6.4%	12.0%	1.1%	7.2%	3.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	6.4%	12.0%	1.3%	7.2%	3.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	6.4%	12.0%	1.3%	7.2%	3.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	6.4%	12.0%	1.3%	7.2%	3.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	6.4%	12.0%	1.3%	7.2%	3.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	5.2%	12.0%	1.3%	7.2%	17.5%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	5.2%	12.0%	1.3%	7.2%	17.5%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	5.2%	12.0%	1.3%	7.2%	17.5%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	5.2%	12.0%	1.3%	7.2%	17.5%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	5.2%	12.0%	0.6%	11.1%	17.5%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	5.2%	12.0%	0.6%	11.1%	17.5%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	5.2%	12.0%	0.6%	11.1%	17.5%
2026-10-14T01:29:12+00:00	10.4%	12.0%	0.6%	11.1%	17.5%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	10.4%	12.0%	0.6%	11.1%	17.5%
2026-10-14T03:00:01+00:00	10.4%	12.0%	0.6%	11.1%	17.5%
2026-10-14T03:45:36+00:00	10.4%	12.0%	0.6%	11.1%	17.5%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	10.4%	12.0%	0.6%	11.1%	17.5%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	10.4%	12.0%	0.6%	11.1%	17.5%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	10.4%	12.0%	0.6%	11.1%	17.5%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	10.4%	12.0%	0.6%	11.1%	17.5%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	5.4%	12.0%	0.6%	11.1%	13.9%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	5.4%	12.0%	0.6%	11.1%	13.9%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	5.4%	12.0%	0.6%	11.1%	13.9%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	5.4%	12.0%	0.6%	11.1%	13.9%
2026-10-14T10:34:20+00:00	5.4%	12.0%	0.6%	14.1%	13.9%
2026-10-14T11:20:58+00:00	5.4%	9.6%	0.3%	14.1%	13.9%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	5.4%	9.6%	0.3%	14.1%	13.9%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	5.4%	9.6%	0.3%	14.1%	13.9%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	7.1%	9.6%	0.3%	14.1%	13.9%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	7.1%	9.7%	0.3%	14.1%	13.9%
2026-10-14T15:12:41+00:00	7.1%	8.6%	0.3%	14.1%	13.9%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	7.1%	8.6%	0.3%	14.1%	13.9%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	7.1%	8.6%	0.3%	14.1%	13.9%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	7.1%	8.6%	0.7%	14.1%	13.9%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	7.1%	8.6%	0.7%	14.1%	13.9%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	7.1%	8.6%	0.7%	14.1%	13.9%
2026-10-14T19:43:38+00:00	5.4%	8.6%	0.7%	28.0%	16.9%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	5.4%	8.6%	0.7%	28.0%	16.9%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	5.4%	8.6%	0.7%	28.0%	16.9%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	5.4%	8.6%	0.7%	28.0%	16.9%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	5.4%	8.6%	0.7%	28.0%	16.9%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	5.4%	8.5%	0.6%	28.0%	16.9%
2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00	5.4%	8.5%	0.6%	28.0%	16.9%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	5.4%	8.5%	0.6%	28.0%	16.9%
2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00	6.2%	8.5%	0.6%	28.0%	16.9%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	6.2%	8.5%	0.6%	28.0%	16.9%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	6.2%	8.5%	0.6%	28.0%	16.9%
2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00	6.2%	8.5%	0.6%	28.0%	16.9%
2026-10-15T04:48:03+00:00	6.2%	8.5%	0.6%	28.0%	16.9%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	6.2%	8.5%	1.2%	28.0%	16.9%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	6.2%	8.5%	1.2%	28.0%	16.9%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	6.2%	8.5%	1.2%	28.0%	16.9%
2026-10-15T07:50:17+00:00	6.7%	8.5%	1.2%	27.1%	11.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	6.7%	8.5%	1.2%	27.1%	11.2%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	6.7%	8.5%	1.2%	27.1%	11.2%
2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:00	6.7%	8.5%	1.2%	27.1%	11.2%
2026-10-15T10:53:43+00:00	6.7%	8.5%	1.2%	27.1%	11.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:31+00:00	6.7%	8.5%	0.5%	27.1%	11.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00	6.7%	13.0%	0.5%	27.1%	11.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00	6.7%	13.0%	0.5%	27.1%	11.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	4.8%	13.0%	0.5%	27.1%	11.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	4.7%	13.6%	0.5%	27.1%	11.2%
2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:00	4.7%	8.5%	0.5%	27.1%	11.2%
2026-10-15T16:20:12+00:00	4.7%	8.5%	0.5%	27.1%	11.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	4.7%	8.5%	0.9%	27.1%	11.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	4.7%	8.5%	0.9%	27.1%	11.2%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	4.7%	8.5%	0.9%	27.1%	11.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	4.7%	8.5%	0.9%	27.1%	11.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	6.4%	8.5%	0.9%	30.4%	12.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00	6.4%	8.5%	0.9%	30.4%	12.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	6.4%	8.5%	0.9%	30.4%	12.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	6.4%	8.5%	0.9%	30.4%	12.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	6.4%	8.5%	0.8%	30.4%	12.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	6.4%	8.5%	0.8%	30.4%	12.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	6.4%	8.5%	0.8%	30.4%	12.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	6.7%	8.5%	0.8%	30.4%	12.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	6.7%	8.5%	0.8%	30.4%	12.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	6.7%	8.5%	0.8%	30.4%	12.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	6.7%	8.5%	0.8%	30.4%	12.3%
2026-10-16T04:24:52+00:00	6.7%	8.5%	0.8%	30.4%	12.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	6.7%	8.5%	2.1%	30.4%	12.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	6.7%	8.5%	2.1%	30.4%	12.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	6.7%	8.5%	2.1%	30.4%	12.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	6.7%	8.5%	2.1%	30.4%	12.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:28+00:00	6.5%	8.5%	2.1%	30.4%	5.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	6.5%	8.5%	2.1%	30.4%	5.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	6.5%	8.5%	2.1%	30.4%	5.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	6.5%	8.5%	2.1%	30.4%	5.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00	6.5%	10.2%	1.8%	30.4%	5.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	6.5%	10.2%	1.8%	30.4%	5.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	6.5%	10.2%	1.8%	30.4%	5.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00	6.5%	10.2%	1.8%	30.4%	5.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:00	5.3%	10.3%	1.8%	29.5%	5.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:43+00:00	5.3%	9.4%	1.8%	29.5%	5.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	5.3%	9.4%	1.8%	29.5%	5.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	5.3%	9.4%	1.8%	29.5%	5.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00	5.3%	9.4%	0.9%	29.5%	5.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	5.3%	9.4%	0.9%	29.5%	5.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	5.3%	9.4%	0.9%	29.5%	5.0%
2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00	7.1%	9.4%	0.9%	29.5%	4.5%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	7.1%	9.4%	0.9%	29.5%	4.5%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	7.1%	9.4%	0.9%	29.5%	4.5%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	7.1%	9.4%	0.9%	29.5%	4.5%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	7.1%	9.4%	0.9%	29.5%	4.5%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	7.1%	9.4%	1.5%	29.5%	4.5%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	7.1%	9.4%	1.5%	29.5%	4.5%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	7.1%	9.4%	1.5%	29.5%	4.5%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	9.0%	9.4%	1.5%	29.5%	4.5%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	9.0%	9.4%	1.5%	29.5%	4.5%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	9.0%	9.4%	1.5%	29.5%	4.5%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	9.0%	9.4%	1.5%	29.5%	4.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	9.0%	9.4%	2.9%	29.5%	4.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	9.0%	9.4%	2.9%	29.5%	4.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	9.0%	9.4%	2.9%	29.5%	4.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	30%	77.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0870
NWS forecast	12%	77.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.0137
IFS Ensemble	9%	74.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0088
AIFS Single	9%	74.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0081
National Blend	5%	78.0°F	0.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0023
ICON	4%	73.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0020
WeatherNext 2	3%	74.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0008

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261017-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Denver runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗