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KDEN / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
30%
EPS
9%
AIFS
9%
ICON
4%
WN2
3%
Consensus
5%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 16.2¢Risks 16.20u
VS
WN2NO 83.8¢Risks 83.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +83.80u · WN2 −83.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.8% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.7% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 16.6% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.5% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.4% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 14.6% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 13.8% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 13.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.7% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.7% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.8% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.5% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.7% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.4% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.7% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.2% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.2% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.6% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.8% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.8% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 30.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 28.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 34.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 26.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 30.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.6% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.7% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 14.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 17.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 11.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 10.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 9.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 8.6% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 9.9% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 9.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 13.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 13.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 17.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 11.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.2% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.9% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.7% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.4% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.6% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.5% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.8% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.9% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.4% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.4% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0010-02 12:0010-10 06:0010-17 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:002.3%—0.3%———
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:002.6%————4.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:000.0%————4.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:0013.1%————4.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:003.8%—————
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:000.0%————3.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:000.3%————0.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:005.6%————2.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:003.2%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:0022.8%————0.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:000.6%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:0011.2%————2.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0012.7%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:000.0%————0.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:001.3%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:000.8%—0.0%——1.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:000.0%—0.0%———
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:000.0%————5.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:000.0%—15.7%——4.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:000.0%—0.0%———
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:000.8%—2.4%——4.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:000.9%—0.0%———
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:000.6%—0.0%——4.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:001.0%—0.5%———
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:000.8%16.6%0.0%0.0%—1.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:000.7%—0.2%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:000.2%—0.5%1.7%—5.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:000.5%—4.4%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%5.2%3.2%—3.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:000.1%—7.7%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:000.0%3.8%5.5%3.8%—2.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:000.3%—2.2%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.4%1.0%3.1%0.2%—3.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:000.4%0.0%2.2%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:000.6%0.9%0.3%5.0%—2.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:000.9%7.5%0.3%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:000.5%7.9%1.0%7.9%—3.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:001.4%10.4%3.6%——6.4%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:000.5%11.1%7.2%14.7%—6.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:000.7%14.6%3.8%——0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.3%12.3%10.8%17.0%—7.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:000.4%13.8%22.8%——7.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.5%13.7%30.1%11.9%0.0%7.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:000.2%9.7%23.1%0.0%——
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.2%13.4%24.2%10.5%—10.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.2%9.7%28.3%9.7%—0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.2%8.0%34.2%5.9%13.7%7.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.1%7.7%29.1%7.2%—6.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.1%5.7%26.2%6.5%13.4%7.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.1%11.8%30.0%8.6%—7.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.1%11.5%22.2%7.3%17.2%9.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.0%7.5%18.1%9.9%—8.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.0%4.4%17.1%3.7%11.0%4.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.0%12.3%21.6%9.2%—6.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES30%77.5°F3.7°F2026-10-16 12:000.0870
NWS forecast12%77.0°F2.1°F2026-10-17 03:000.0137
IFS Ensemble9%74.2°F4.0°F2026-10-16 00:000.0088
AIFS Single9%74.2°F4.0°F2026-10-16 18:000.0081
National Blend5%78.0°F0.9°F2026-10-17 00:000.0023
ICON4%73.5°F3.5°F2026-10-16 12:000.0020
WeatherNext 23%74.0°F2.9°F2026-10-16 18:000.0008

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261017-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Denver runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗