KDEN / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 11 · 10:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

67%

53%

30%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 48.5¢Risks 48.45u

HRESNO 51.5¢Risks 51.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +51.55u · HRES −51.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	85.4%	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	70.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	27.8%	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	39.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	57.4%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	9.6%	52.8%	0.0%	—	33.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	19.9%	46.4%	39.2%	—	24.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	22.2%	35.1%	30.3%	37.2%	—	30.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	26.1%	26.8%	10.8%	—	14.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	23.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	18.4%	19.5%	36.1%	—	18.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	26.0%	2.0%	26.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	26.9%	24.1%	24.8%	57.8%	—	12.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	17.8%	40.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	20.3%	37.3%	71.0%	—	12.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	47.2%	58.5%	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	24.7%	24.0%	42.3%	—	17.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	40.1%	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	28.5%	42.8%	32.1%	—	29.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	25.3%	59.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	29.2%	63.9%	34.1%	—	37.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	43.3%	62.2%	0.0%	—	40.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	58.1%	30.0%	65.9%	52.3%	—	41.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	53.6%	74.7%	52.4%	—	39.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	64.6%	75.4%	58.7%	65.8%	55.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	55.1%	76.2%	82.6%	—	47.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	68.1%	74.9%	65.7%	54.0%	43.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	62.3%	71.2%	73.5%	—	45.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	77.8%	65.5%	79.8%	79.8%	68.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	76.4%	57.5%	94.0%	—	59.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	34.6%	62.4%	53.2%	92.9%	62.4%	72.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	83.0%	77.2%	96.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	67%	73.8°F	5.3°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	67%	73.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	53%	72.2°F	8.3°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	72.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	68.2°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261018-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 72°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗