KDEN / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

57%

57%

42%

20%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 39.1¢Risks 39.10u

ICONNO 60.9¢Risks 60.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +60.90u · ICON −60.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:01:51+00:00	29.6%	37.6%	18.2%	16.8%	27.5%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	29.6%	37.6%	18.2%	16.8%	27.5%
2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00	29.6%	37.6%	27.2%	16.8%	27.5%
2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00	29.6%	37.6%	27.2%	16.8%	27.5%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00	29.6%	37.6%	27.2%	16.8%	27.5%
2026-10-12T07:48:54+00:00	24.8%	37.6%	27.2%	30.2%	27.9%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	24.8%	37.6%	27.2%	30.2%	27.9%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	24.8%	37.6%	27.2%	30.2%	27.9%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00	24.8%	37.6%	27.2%	30.2%	27.9%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00	24.8%	37.6%	27.2%	30.2%	27.9%
2026-10-12T11:35:39+00:00	24.8%	37.6%	15.1%	30.2%	27.9%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	24.8%	24.7%	15.1%	30.2%	27.9%
2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00	24.8%	24.7%	15.1%	30.2%	27.9%
2026-10-12T13:51:09+00:00	29.9%	24.7%	15.1%	30.2%	27.9%
2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00	29.9%	25.0%	15.2%	30.2%	28.0%
2026-10-12T15:27:41+00:00	29.9%	25.0%	15.2%	30.2%	28.0%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	29.9%	25.7%	15.2%	30.2%	28.0%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00	29.9%	25.3%	15.2%	30.2%	28.0%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	29.9%	25.3%	15.7%	30.2%	28.0%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	29.9%	25.3%	15.7%	30.2%	28.0%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	29.9%	25.3%	15.7%	30.2%	28.0%
2026-10-12T19:58:35+00:00	27.3%	25.3%	15.7%	33.5%	41.5%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	27.3%	25.3%	15.7%	33.5%	41.5%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	27.3%	25.3%	15.7%	33.5%	41.5%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	27.3%	25.3%	15.7%	33.5%	41.5%
2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:00	27.3%	25.3%	20.3%	33.5%	41.5%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	27.3%	25.3%	20.3%	33.5%	41.5%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	27.3%	25.3%	20.3%	33.5%	41.5%
2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00	27.3%	25.3%	20.3%	33.5%	41.5%
2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00	28.6%	25.3%	20.3%	33.5%	41.6%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	28.6%	25.3%	20.3%	33.5%	41.6%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	28.6%	25.3%	20.3%	33.5%	41.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:43+00:00	56.8%	49.0%	37.4%	40.4%	6.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	56.8%	49.0%	37.4%	40.4%	6.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	56.8%	49.0%	37.4%	40.4%	6.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00	56.8%	49.0%	43.6%	40.4%	6.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	56.8%	49.0%	43.6%	40.4%	6.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	56.8%	49.0%	43.6%	40.4%	6.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00	62.5%	49.0%	43.6%	40.4%	7.5%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	62.5%	49.0%	43.6%	40.4%	7.5%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	62.5%	49.0%	43.6%	40.4%	7.5%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	62.5%	49.0%	43.6%	40.4%	7.5%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	62.5%	49.0%	43.6%	39.4%	7.5%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	62.5%	49.0%	42.3%	39.4%	7.5%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	62.5%	49.0%	42.3%	39.4%	7.5%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	62.5%	49.0%	42.3%	39.4%	7.5%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	63.5%	49.0%	42.3%	39.4%	7.5%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	63.5%	49.0%	42.3%	39.4%	7.5%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	63.5%	49.0%	42.3%	39.4%	7.5%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	63.5%	49.0%	42.3%	39.4%	7.5%
2026-10-17T04:42:17+00:00	63.5%	49.0%	42.3%	39.4%	7.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	63.5%	49.0%	53.9%	39.4%	7.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	63.5%	49.0%	53.9%	39.4%	7.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	63.5%	49.0%	53.9%	39.4%	7.5%
2026-10-17T07:44:58+00:00	57.0%	49.0%	53.9%	51.1%	19.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	57.0%	49.0%	53.9%	51.1%	19.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	57.0%	49.0%	53.9%	51.1%	19.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	57.0%	49.0%	53.9%	51.1%	19.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	57.0%	49.0%	53.9%	51.1%	19.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	57.0%	58.9%	44.5%	51.1%	19.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	57.0%	58.9%	44.5%	51.1%	19.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	57.0%	58.9%	44.5%	51.1%	19.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	56.0%	58.9%	44.5%	51.1%	19.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	56.1%	58.7%	44.5%	51.1%	18.9%
2026-10-17T15:25:08+00:00	56.1%	57.7%	44.5%	51.1%	18.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	56.1%	57.7%	44.5%	51.1%	18.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	56.1%	57.7%	44.5%	51.1%	18.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	56.1%	57.7%	47.3%	51.1%	18.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	56.1%	57.7%	47.3%	51.1%	18.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	56.1%	57.7%	47.3%	51.1%	18.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	55.0%	57.7%	47.3%	42.5%	20.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	55.0%	57.7%	47.3%	42.5%	20.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	55.0%	57.7%	47.3%	42.5%	20.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	55.0%	57.7%	47.3%	42.5%	20.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	55.0%	57.7%	47.3%	42.5%	20.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	55.0%	57.7%	37.9%	42.5%	20.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	55.0%	57.7%	37.9%	42.5%	20.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00	55.0%	57.7%	37.9%	42.5%	20.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	57.1%	57.7%	37.9%	42.5%	20.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	57.1%	57.7%	37.9%	42.5%	20.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	57.1%	57.7%	37.9%	42.5%	20.5%
2026-10-18T04:14:30+00:00	57.1%	57.7%	37.9%	42.5%	20.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	57.1%	57.7%	56.8%	42.5%	20.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	57.1%	57.7%	56.8%	42.5%	20.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	57.1%	57.7%	56.8%	42.5%	20.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	57.1%	57.7%	56.8%	42.5%	20.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	75.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	58%	75.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	57%	75.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	57%	75.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	73.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	20%	71.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261018-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗