KDEN / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

57%

57%

42%

20%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 39.1¢Risks 39.10u

ICONNO 60.9¢Risks 60.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +60.90u · ICON −60.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	14.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	20.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	—	—	—	35.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	72.0%	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	30.4%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	14.1%	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	22.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	37.4%	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	3.3%	32.3%	0.0%	—	17.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	8.2%	26.0%	20.4%	—	10.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	26.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	16.9%	13.8%	18.4%	—	14.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	10.8%	11.1%	3.3%	—	5.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	8.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	6.3%	6.9%	16.2%	—	6.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	9.9%	0.3%	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	8.6%	9.0%	32.2%	—	3.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	5.5%	17.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	6.3%	15.4%	44.5%	—	3.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	21.7%	30.9%	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	7.9%	7.5%	17.7%	—	4.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	15.8%	22.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	9.0%	17.0%	10.8%	—	9.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	7.2%	28.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	8.5%	32.1%	10.9%	—	12.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	20.6%	15.4%	29.6%	0.0%	—	13.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	8.1%	32.0%	20.7%	—	14.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	20.8%	40.5%	19.9%	—	11.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	28.7%	40.1%	23.6%	29.8%	20.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	20.0%	39.8%	48.7%	—	15.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	29.5%	36.8%	27.3%	18.2%	12.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	23.2%	31.2%	33.8%	—	12.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	37.2%	24.5%	40.0%	40.0%	26.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	33.8%	17.2%	66.2%	—	18.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	19.2%	13.4%	60.9%	19.2%	27.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	38.6%	30.9%	71.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	75.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	58%	75.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	57%	75.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	57%	75.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	73.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	20%	71.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261018-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗