KDEN / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST—Time unavailable

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

Two model forecasts are needed to illustrate an opposing contract.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

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Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	16.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	48.1%	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	28.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	4.2%	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	7.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	15.9%	—	—	8.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	16.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	0.6%	12.2%	0.0%	—	4.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	1.7%	8.4%	5.9%	—	2.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	4.2%	3.2%	4.8%	—	3.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	2.1%	2.2%	0.4%	—	0.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.9%	1.0%	3.4%	—	0.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.0%	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	1.2%	1.3%	9.0%	—	0.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.6%	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.7%	2.6%	14.4%	—	0.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	4.2%	7.4%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.8%	0.8%	2.9%	—	0.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	2.2%	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	0.9%	2.4%	1.2%	—	0.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.6%	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	0.7%	5.9%	1.0%	—	1.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	1.6%	4.8%	0.0%	—	1.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	0.5%	5.1%	2.4%	—	1.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	2.2%	7.4%	2.0%	—	0.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	3.5%	6.7%	2.5%	3.7%	2.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	1.6%	6.0%	9.2%	—	1.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	3.0%	4.6%	2.6%	1.2%	0.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	1.7%	3.0%	3.5%	—	0.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	3.7%	1.6%	4.4%	4.4%	1.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.7%	0.7%	13.6%	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.7%	0.4%	9.6%	0.7%	1.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.6%	1.6%	14.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261018-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Denver runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗