KDEN / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

78%

70%

70%

34%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 60.7¢Risks 60.65u

ICONNO 39.3¢Risks 39.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.35u · ICON −39.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:30+00:00	51.0%	81.5%	29.2%	51.0%	27.7%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	51.0%	81.5%	57.7%	51.0%	27.7%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	51.0%	81.5%	57.7%	51.0%	27.7%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	51.0%	81.5%	57.7%	51.0%	27.7%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	51.0%	81.5%	57.7%	51.0%	27.7%
2026-10-18T08:01:43+00:00	60.0%	81.5%	57.7%	61.6%	44.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	60.0%	81.5%	57.7%	61.6%	44.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	60.0%	81.5%	57.7%	61.6%	44.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	60.0%	81.5%	57.7%	61.6%	44.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00	60.0%	81.5%	57.7%	61.6%	44.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00	60.0%	86.3%	54.1%	61.6%	44.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:51+00:00	60.0%	86.3%	54.1%	61.6%	44.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	60.0%	86.3%	54.1%	61.6%	44.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	72.0%	85.5%	54.1%	61.7%	44.4%
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00	72.0%	85.5%	54.1%	61.7%	44.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:33+00:00	72.0%	87.7%	54.1%	61.7%	44.4%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	72.0%	87.7%	54.1%	61.7%	44.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	72.0%	87.7%	69.7%	61.7%	44.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	72.0%	87.7%	69.7%	61.7%	44.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	72.0%	87.7%	69.7%	61.7%	44.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	72.0%	87.7%	69.7%	61.7%	44.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	71.2%	87.7%	69.7%	70.5%	33.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	71.2%	87.7%	69.7%	70.5%	33.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	71.2%	87.7%	69.7%	70.5%	33.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	71.2%	87.7%	69.7%	70.5%	33.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00	71.2%	87.7%	72.0%	70.5%	33.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	71.2%	87.7%	72.0%	70.5%	33.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	71.2%	87.7%	72.0%	70.5%	33.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	77.7%	87.7%	72.0%	70.5%	33.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	77.7%	87.7%	72.0%	70.5%	33.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	77.7%	87.7%	72.0%	70.5%	33.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	77.7%	87.7%	72.0%	70.5%	33.6%
2026-10-19T04:31:21+00:00	77.7%	87.7%	72.0%	70.5%	33.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	77.7%	87.7%	69.7%	70.5%	33.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	77.7%	87.7%	69.7%	70.5%	33.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	77.7%	87.7%	69.7%	70.5%	33.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	88%	72.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	70.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	70%	69.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	69.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	34%	66.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261019-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗