KDEN / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

78%

70%

70%

34%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 60.7¢Risks 60.65u

ICONNO 39.3¢Risks 39.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.35u · ICON −39.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	70.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	61.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	—	—	—	63.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	0.7%	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	75.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	48.0%	—	—	70.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	77.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	1.8%	71.2%	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	68.9%	60.4%	0.0%	—	70.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	80.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	28.5%	79.0%	71.5%	55.1%	—	62.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	46.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	46.9%	56.8%	76.1%	—	67.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	63.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	14.5%	64.1%	30.9%	54.0%	—	52.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	40.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	65.5%	47.5%	83.8%	—	53.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	26.0%	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	78.6%	39.6%	50.9%	—	58.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	76.5%	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	45.4%	35.6%	62.7%	—	58.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	61.2%	33.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	52.9%	43.2%	64.3%	—	64.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	81.7%	52.0%	—	—	58.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	66.0%	40.8%	72.4%	—	55.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	35.5%	61.5%	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	46.7%	76.2%	85.7%	0.0%	52.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	44.4%	84.6%	0.0%	—	44.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	30.0%	62.6%	75.8%	64.8%	44.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	31.4%	69.6%	80.9%	—	42.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	19.9%	59.9%	61.1%	84.1%	—	57.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	60.2%	48.7%	92.3%	—	78.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	47.3%	50.0%	89.3%	69.3%	74.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	59.7%	58.3%	94.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	57.2%	61.4%	94.5%	69.5%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	88%	72.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	70.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	70%	69.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	69.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	34%	66.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261019-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗