WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KDEN / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
47%
HRES
46%
ICON
31%
WN2
20%
AIFS
16%
Consensus
35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 31.5¢Risks 31.50u
VS
AIFSNO 68.5¢Risks 68.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +68.50u · AIFS −68.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 29.3% · 2026-10-16T04:24:52+00:00AIFS Single: 29.3% · 2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00AIFS Single: 29.3% · 2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00AIFS Single: 29.3% · 2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00AIFS Single: 29.3% · 2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00AIFS Single: 22.7% · 2026-10-16T08:11:28+00:00AIFS Single: 22.7% · 2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00AIFS Single: 22.7% · 2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00AIFS Single: 22.7% · 2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00AIFS Single: 22.7% · 2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00AIFS Single: 22.7% · 2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00AIFS Single: 22.7% · 2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00AIFS Single: 22.7% · 2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00AIFS Single: 15.8% · 2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.6% · 2026-10-16T04:24:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.6% · 2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.6% · 2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.6% · 2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.6% · 2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.6% · 2026-10-16T08:11:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.6% · 2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.6% · 2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.6% · 2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.2% · 2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.2% · 2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.2% · 2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.2% · 2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.2% · 2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.8% · 2026-10-16T04:24:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.0% · 2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.0% · 2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.0% · 2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.0% · 2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.0% · 2026-10-16T08:11:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.0% · 2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.0% · 2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.0% · 2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.3% · 2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.3% · 2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.3% · 2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.3% · 2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.3% · 2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:00IFS HRES: 54.8% · 2026-10-16T04:24:52+00:00IFS HRES: 54.8% · 2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00IFS HRES: 54.8% · 2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00IFS HRES: 54.8% · 2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00IFS HRES: 54.8% · 2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00IFS HRES: 54.8% · 2026-10-16T08:11:28+00:00IFS HRES: 54.8% · 2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00IFS HRES: 54.8% · 2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00IFS HRES: 54.8% · 2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00IFS HRES: 54.8% · 2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00IFS HRES: 54.8% · 2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00IFS HRES: 54.8% · 2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00IFS HRES: 54.8% · 2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00IFS HRES: 45.5% · 2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:00ICON: 35.6% · 2026-10-16T04:24:52+00:00ICON: 35.6% · 2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00ICON: 35.6% · 2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00ICON: 35.6% · 2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00ICON: 35.6% · 2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00ICON: 30.7% · 2026-10-16T08:11:28+00:00ICON: 30.7% · 2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00ICON: 30.7% · 2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00ICON: 30.7% · 2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00ICON: 30.7% · 2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00ICON: 30.7% · 2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00ICON: 30.7% · 2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00ICON: 30.7% · 2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00ICON: 30.7% · 2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:0010-16 04:2410-16 09:4110-16 14:19
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-16T04:24:52+00:0029.3%37.6%11.8%54.8%35.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:0029.3%37.6%21.0%54.8%35.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:0029.3%37.6%21.0%54.8%35.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:0029.3%37.6%21.0%54.8%35.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:0029.3%37.6%21.0%54.8%35.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:28+00:0022.7%37.6%21.0%54.8%30.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:0022.7%37.6%21.0%54.8%30.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:0022.7%37.6%21.0%54.8%30.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:0022.7%37.6%21.0%54.8%30.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:0022.7%47.2%20.3%54.8%30.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:0022.7%47.2%20.3%54.8%30.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:0022.7%47.2%20.3%54.8%30.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:0022.7%47.2%20.3%54.8%30.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:0015.8%47.2%20.3%45.5%30.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend56%71.0°F3.3°F2026-10-16 06:00Pending
NWS forecast55%71.0°F3.9°F2026-10-16 02:00Pending
IFS Ensemble47%70.2°F4.3°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
IFS HRES46%70.0°F4.5°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
ICON31%68.5°F4.0°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 220%67.7°F3.4°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
AIFS Single16%66.2°F4.3°F2026-10-16 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗