KDEN / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

46%

31%

20%

16%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 31.5¢Risks 31.50u

AIFSNO 68.5¢Risks 68.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +68.50u · AIFS −68.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	—	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	—	—	—	—	45.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	0.2%	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	58.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	60.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	29.5%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	0.5%	52.0%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	48.6%	39.6%	0.0%	—	50.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	60.1%	50.7%	33.7%	—	40.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	25.8%	34.4%	55.3%	—	44.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	40.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	40.5%	13.6%	30.9%	—	29.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	19.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	40.9%	24.5%	63.9%	—	29.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	9.9%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	55.2%	17.8%	26.2%	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	51.8%	13.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	20.9%	14.4%	35.6%	—	31.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	33.5%	12.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	25.5%	18.3%	35.7%	—	35.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	56.0%	24.1%	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	35.9%	15.7%	42.8%	—	25.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	12.1%	30.7%	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	18.3%	45.6%	59.7%	0.0%	22.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	16.1%	56.7%	0.0%	—	16.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	8.1%	28.9%	43.0%	31.0%	15.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	8.2%	34.7%	48.8%	—	13.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	24.6%	25.6%	52.5%	—	22.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	23.8%	15.8%	67.5%	—	42.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	14.1%	15.7%	59.3%	30.7%	36.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	21.1%	20.1%	71.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	18.2%	21.2%	69.5%	28.0%	37.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	24.8%	21.3%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	71.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	70.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	70.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	31%	68.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	67.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	66.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗