KDEN / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

44%

24%

17%

17%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 36.0¢Risks 35.95u

WN2NO 64.0¢Risks 64.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +64.05u · WN2 −64.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:54+00:00	25.4%	38.4%	26.1%	53.8%	8.1%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	25.4%	38.4%	26.1%	53.8%	8.1%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	25.4%	38.4%	26.1%	53.8%	8.1%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00	25.4%	38.4%	26.1%	53.8%	8.1%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00	25.4%	38.4%	26.1%	53.8%	8.1%
2026-10-12T11:35:39+00:00	25.4%	38.4%	19.3%	53.8%	8.1%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	25.4%	23.5%	19.3%	53.8%	8.1%
2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00	25.4%	23.5%	19.3%	53.8%	8.1%
2026-10-12T13:51:09+00:00	23.7%	23.5%	19.3%	53.8%	8.1%
2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00	23.8%	23.5%	19.3%	53.8%	8.2%
2026-10-12T15:27:41+00:00	23.8%	23.5%	19.3%	53.8%	8.2%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	23.8%	23.7%	19.3%	53.8%	8.2%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00	23.8%	23.7%	19.3%	53.8%	8.2%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	23.8%	23.7%	13.4%	53.8%	8.2%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	23.8%	23.7%	13.4%	53.8%	8.2%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	23.8%	23.7%	13.4%	53.8%	8.2%
2026-10-12T19:58:35+00:00	18.7%	23.7%	13.4%	43.7%	55.2%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	18.7%	23.7%	13.4%	43.7%	55.2%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	18.7%	23.7%	13.4%	43.7%	55.2%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	18.7%	23.7%	13.4%	43.7%	55.2%
2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:00	18.7%	23.7%	16.7%	43.7%	55.2%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	18.7%	23.7%	16.7%	43.7%	55.2%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	18.7%	23.7%	16.7%	43.7%	55.2%
2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00	18.7%	23.7%	16.7%	43.7%	55.2%
2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00	16.8%	23.7%	16.7%	43.7%	55.2%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	16.8%	23.7%	16.7%	43.7%	55.2%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	16.8%	23.7%	16.7%	43.7%	55.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	74.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
ICON	55%	74.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	72.5°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	70.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	17%	68.1°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	17%	68.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261019-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 74°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗