KDEN / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

44%

24%

17%

17%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 36.0¢Risks 35.95u

WN2NO 64.0¢Risks 64.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +64.05u · WN2 −64.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	37.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	—	—	—	29.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	40.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	15.2%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	40.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	0.1%	32.4%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	28.6%	21.4%	0.0%	—	30.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	38.5%	29.7%	16.5%	—	21.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	11.0%	16.4%	33.0%	—	23.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	20.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	20.1%	4.5%	13.6%	—	12.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	19.5%	9.3%	39.3%	—	12.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	2.7%	26.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	29.9%	5.7%	9.7%	—	13.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	26.4%	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	6.6%	3.9%	14.4%	—	11.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	12.7%	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	8.2%	5.1%	13.6%	—	13.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	27.4%	7.3%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	12.8%	3.8%	17.0%	—	7.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.5%	9.6%	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	4.2%	17.6%	28.2%	0.0%	5.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.3%	24.9%	0.0%	—	3.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.1%	7.6%	14.7%	8.5%	2.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.1%	9.7%	17.5%	—	2.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	5.2%	5.5%	19.1%	—	4.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	4.6%	2.4%	30.2%	—	12.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	1.9%	2.2%	22.0%	6.5%	8.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	3.2%	3.0%	31.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	2.3%	2.9%	28.0%	4.7%	7.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	3.4%	2.7%	35.2%	—	4.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.8%	3.7%	31.7%	7.7%	3.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.0%	1.6%	24.1%	—	5.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	74.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
ICON	55%	74.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	72.5°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	70.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	17%	68.1°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	17%	68.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261019-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 74°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗