KDEN / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST12%Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

36%

28%

12%

Consensus

12%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 18.6¢Risks 18.65u

WN2NO 81.3¢Risks 81.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +81.35u · WN2 −81.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:19+00:00	12.7%	17.5%	12.2%	37.6%	51.2%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	12.7%	17.5%	12.2%	37.6%	51.2%
2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00	12.7%	17.5%	13.0%	37.6%	51.2%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	12.7%	17.5%	13.0%	37.6%	51.2%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	12.7%	17.5%	13.0%	37.6%	51.2%
2026-10-13T08:04:08+00:00	12.1%	17.5%	13.0%	34.6%	55.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	12.1%	17.5%	13.0%	34.6%	55.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	12.1%	17.5%	13.0%	34.6%	55.1%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	12.1%	17.5%	13.0%	34.6%	55.1%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	12.1%	17.5%	13.0%	34.6%	55.1%
2026-10-13T11:50:41+00:00	12.1%	11.0%	6.0%	34.6%	55.1%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	12.1%	11.0%	6.0%	34.6%	55.1%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	12.1%	11.0%	6.0%	34.6%	55.1%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	13.7%	11.0%	6.1%	34.6%	55.6%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	13.7%	11.0%	6.1%	34.6%	55.6%
2026-10-13T15:41:50+00:00	13.7%	11.3%	6.1%	34.6%	55.6%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	13.7%	11.3%	6.1%	34.6%	55.6%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	13.7%	11.3%	5.8%	34.6%	55.6%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	13.7%	11.3%	5.8%	34.6%	55.6%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	13.7%	11.3%	5.8%	34.6%	55.6%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	13.7%	11.3%	5.8%	34.6%	55.6%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	15.0%	11.3%	5.8%	34.6%	29.5%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	15.0%	11.3%	5.8%	34.6%	29.5%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	15.0%	11.3%	5.8%	34.6%	29.5%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	15.0%	11.3%	5.8%	34.6%	29.5%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	15.0%	11.3%	7.5%	50.6%	29.5%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	15.0%	11.3%	7.5%	50.6%	29.5%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	15.0%	11.3%	7.5%	50.6%	29.5%
2026-10-14T01:29:12+00:00	23.7%	11.3%	7.5%	50.6%	29.5%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	23.7%	11.3%	7.5%	50.6%	29.5%
2026-10-14T03:00:01+00:00	23.7%	11.3%	7.5%	50.6%	29.5%
2026-10-15T04:48:03+00:00	7.9%	16.4%	1.4%	23.3%	33.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	7.9%	16.4%	1.5%	23.3%	33.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	7.9%	16.4%	1.5%	23.3%	33.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	7.9%	16.4%	1.5%	23.3%	33.7%
2026-10-15T07:50:17+00:00	5.2%	16.4%	1.5%	28.1%	36.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	5.2%	16.4%	1.5%	28.1%	36.2%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	5.2%	16.4%	1.5%	28.1%	36.2%
2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:00	5.2%	16.4%	1.5%	28.1%	36.2%
2026-10-15T10:53:43+00:00	5.2%	16.4%	1.5%	28.1%	36.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:31+00:00	5.2%	16.4%	1.0%	28.1%	36.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00	5.2%	19.7%	1.0%	28.1%	36.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00	5.2%	19.7%	1.0%	28.1%	36.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	4.7%	19.7%	1.0%	28.1%	36.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	4.7%	19.7%	1.0%	28.1%	36.3%
2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:00	4.7%	12.2%	1.0%	28.1%	36.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
ICON	36%	72.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	71.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	23%	72.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	69.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	66.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	1%	65.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261019-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 75°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗