KDEN / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST12%Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

36%

28%

12%

Consensus

12%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 18.6¢Risks 18.65u

WN2NO 81.3¢Risks 81.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +81.35u · WN2 −81.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	34.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	35.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	11.7%	—	—	27.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	33.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	0.1%	26.5%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	23.0%	16.6%	0.0%	—	24.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	31.7%	23.7%	12.4%	—	16.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	7.8%	12.2%	26.4%	—	18.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	14.9%	2.9%	9.7%	—	9.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	14.3%	6.3%	31.5%	—	8.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	1.6%	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	22.8%	3.6%	6.5%	—	9.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	19.6%	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	4.1%	2.3%	9.8%	—	7.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	8.4%	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	5.1%	3.0%	9.0%	—	9.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	19.7%	4.4%	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	8.2%	2.1%	11.3%	—	4.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.3%	5.8%	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.3%	11.4%	19.8%	0.0%	3.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.7%	16.8%	0.0%	—	1.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	4.2%	9.0%	4.8%	1.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.5%	5.5%	10.8%	—	1.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.6%	2.8%	11.8%	—	2.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	2.2%	1.1%	20.0%	—	6.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.8%	0.9%	13.4%	3.2%	4.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.4%	1.3%	20.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.9%	1.2%	17.2%	2.1%	3.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	1.4%	1.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
ICON	36%	72.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	71.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	23%	72.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	69.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	66.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	1%	65.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261019-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 75°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗