KDEN / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

39%

26%

22%

18%

16%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 27.5¢Risks 27.50u

WN2NO 72.5¢Risks 72.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +72.50u · WN2 −72.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T11:50:41+00:00	50.7%	21.2%	26.0%	71.5%	6.3%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	50.7%	21.2%	26.0%	71.5%	6.3%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	50.7%	21.2%	26.0%	71.5%	6.3%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	49.3%	21.2%	26.0%	71.5%	6.3%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	49.3%	21.2%	26.0%	71.5%	6.3%
2026-10-13T15:41:50+00:00	49.3%	22.7%	26.0%	71.5%	6.3%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	49.3%	22.7%	26.0%	71.5%	6.3%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	49.3%	22.7%	32.2%	71.5%	6.3%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	49.3%	22.7%	32.2%	71.5%	6.3%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	49.3%	22.7%	32.2%	71.5%	6.3%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	49.3%	22.7%	32.2%	71.5%	6.3%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	47.2%	22.7%	32.2%	71.5%	58.4%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	47.2%	22.7%	32.2%	71.5%	58.4%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	47.2%	22.7%	32.2%	71.5%	58.4%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	47.2%	22.7%	32.2%	71.5%	58.4%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	47.2%	22.7%	25.4%	66.5%	58.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	47.2%	22.7%	25.4%	66.5%	58.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	47.2%	22.7%	25.4%	66.5%	58.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:12+00:00	12.7%	22.7%	25.4%	66.5%	58.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	12.7%	22.7%	25.4%	66.5%	58.4%
2026-10-14T03:00:01+00:00	12.7%	22.7%	25.4%	66.5%	58.4%
2026-10-15T04:48:03+00:00	22.9%	15.4%	17.3%	41.6%	50.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	22.9%	15.4%	19.0%	41.6%	50.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	22.9%	15.4%	19.0%	41.6%	50.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	22.9%	15.4%	19.0%	41.6%	50.0%
2026-10-15T07:50:17+00:00	23.4%	15.4%	19.0%	28.4%	48.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	23.4%	15.4%	19.0%	28.4%	48.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	23.4%	15.4%	19.0%	28.4%	48.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:00	23.4%	15.4%	19.0%	28.4%	48.0%
2026-10-15T10:53:43+00:00	23.4%	15.4%	19.0%	28.4%	48.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:31+00:00	23.4%	15.4%	13.7%	28.4%	48.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00	23.4%	35.5%	13.7%	28.4%	48.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00	23.4%	35.5%	13.7%	28.4%	48.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	18.8%	35.5%	13.7%	28.4%	48.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	18.8%	35.5%	13.7%	28.4%	48.7%
2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:00	18.8%	25.5%	13.7%	28.4%	48.7%
2026-10-17T04:42:17+00:00	20.3%	26.3%	16.0%	34.5%	28.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	20.3%	26.3%	21.8%	34.5%	28.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	20.3%	26.3%	21.8%	34.5%	28.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	20.3%	26.3%	21.8%	34.5%	28.9%
2026-10-17T07:44:58+00:00	23.4%	26.3%	21.8%	38.6%	26.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	23.4%	26.3%	21.8%	38.6%	26.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	23.4%	26.3%	21.8%	38.6%	26.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	23.4%	26.3%	21.8%	38.6%	26.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	23.4%	26.3%	21.8%	38.6%	26.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	23.4%	17.7%	16.4%	38.6%	26.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	23.4%	17.7%	16.4%	38.6%	26.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	23.4%	17.7%	16.4%	38.6%	26.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:54+00:00	22.0%	17.7%	16.4%	38.6%	26.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	22.0%	18.0%	16.4%	38.6%	26.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	73.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	73.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	26%	72.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	71.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	18%	71.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	71.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 13 · 11:50 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗