KDEN / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

39%

26%

22%

18%

16%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 27.5¢Risks 27.50u

WN2NO 72.5¢Risks 72.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +72.50u · WN2 −72.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	22.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	25.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	23.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	45.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	24.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	55.0%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	6.5%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	28.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	0.0%	10.8%	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	33.6%	15.8%	0.0%	—	29.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.6%	13.2%	22.6%	30.4%	—	24.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	24.5%	27.7%	30.3%	—	25.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	27.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	28.1%	19.5%	23.6%	—	28.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	17.3%	27.9%	38.5%	—	25.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	3.6%	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	25.5%	15.6%	19.0%	—	26.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	21.5%	13.0%	—	—	16.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	15.4%	14.4%	15.4%	—	22.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	25.3%	16.5%	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	21.8%	18.3%	22.5%	—	24.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	21.1%	19.0%	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	12.3%	13.4%	21.9%	0.0%	17.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	11.6%	13.8%	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	17.6%	15.5%	16.2%	—	20.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	14.8%	14.8%	0.0%	—	18.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	12.1%	10.5%	15.3%	0.0%	16.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	16.0%	9.7%	18.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	14.4%	11.2%	17.4%	21.7%	14.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	15.0%	12.8%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	73.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	73.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	26%	72.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	71.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	18%	71.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	71.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 13 · 11:50 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗