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KDEN / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
91%
EPS
84%
WN2
43%
ICON
9%
AIFS
<1%
Consensus
39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 45.6¢Risks 45.55u
VS
AIFSNO 54.4¢Risks 54.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +54.45u · AIFS −54.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T10:34:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.5% · 2026-10-14T10:34:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.4% · 2026-10-14T10:34:21+00:00IFS HRES: 91.0% · 2026-10-14T10:34:21+00:00ICON: 8.7% · 2026-10-14T10:34:21+00:0010-14 10:34
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

One recorded snapshot. Additional runs will extend this chart.

2026-10-14T10:34:21+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T10:34:21+00:000.1%83.5%43.4%91.0%8.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES91%79.0°F6.3°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble84%74.0°F3.6°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
National Blend52%71.0°F9.5°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 243%69.6°F5.4°F2026-10-13 12:00Pending
ICON9%57.0°F9.9°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
AIFS Single<1%53.0°F5.6°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261021-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 71°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗