KDEN / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

84%

43%

<1%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 45.6¢Risks 45.55u

AIFSNO 54.4¢Risks 54.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +54.45u · AIFS −54.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	34.2%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	4.5%	—	22.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	62.3%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	22.1%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	46.1%	—	21.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	52.0%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	11.8%	—	28.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	38.5%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	62.4%	31.1%	0.0%	30.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	71.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	70.3%	77.4%	67.7%	58.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	74.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	36.5%	74.2%	65.6%	35.1%	71.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	60.8%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	30.9%	64.1%	48.4%	63.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	69.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	76.2%	76.8%	29.3%	69.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	22.6%	81.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	82.2%	89.5%	83.9%	73.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	77.8%	85.5%	—	81.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	44.5%	72.6%	92.4%	82.8%	77.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	79.7%	93.0%	—	81.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	74.5%	91.8%	91.8%	86.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	63.7%	80.3%	—	86.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	57.2%	78.8%	84.3%	91.4%	89.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	58.4%	78.7%	87.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	57.6%	87.5%	91.5%	90.1%	91.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	92.1%	94.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	91%	79.0°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	84%	74.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	71.0°F	9.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	43%	69.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
ICON	9%	57.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	53.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261021-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 71°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗