KDEN / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

67%

66%

64%

62%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 76.4¢Risks 76.40u

WN2NO 23.6¢Risks 23.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +23.60u · WN2 −23.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:48:03+00:00	52.1%	47.5%	57.9%	62.4%	67.1%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	52.1%	47.5%	62.5%	62.4%	67.1%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	52.1%	47.5%	62.5%	62.4%	67.1%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	52.1%	47.5%	62.5%	62.4%	67.1%
2026-10-15T07:50:17+00:00	45.6%	47.5%	62.5%	70.3%	73.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	45.6%	47.5%	62.5%	70.3%	73.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	45.6%	47.5%	62.5%	70.3%	73.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:00	45.6%	47.5%	62.5%	70.3%	73.8%
2026-10-15T10:53:43+00:00	45.6%	47.5%	62.5%	70.3%	73.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:31+00:00	45.6%	47.5%	44.0%	70.3%	73.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00	45.6%	53.6%	44.0%	70.3%	73.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00	45.6%	53.6%	44.0%	70.3%	73.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	46.3%	53.6%	44.0%	70.3%	73.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	46.3%	53.6%	44.0%	70.2%	73.7%
2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:00	46.3%	42.2%	44.0%	70.2%	73.7%
2026-10-18T04:14:30+00:00	57.8%	55.8%	64.6%	80.0%	68.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	57.8%	55.8%	66.6%	80.0%	68.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	57.8%	55.8%	66.6%	80.0%	68.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	57.8%	55.8%	66.6%	80.0%	68.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	57.8%	55.8%	66.6%	80.0%	68.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:43+00:00	66.3%	55.8%	66.6%	91.0%	63.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	66.3%	55.8%	66.6%	91.0%	63.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	66.3%	55.8%	66.6%	91.0%	63.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	66.3%	55.8%	66.6%	91.0%	63.8%
2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00	66.3%	55.8%	66.6%	91.0%	63.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00	66.3%	66.4%	61.7%	91.0%	63.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:51+00:00	66.3%	66.4%	61.7%	91.0%	63.8%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	66.3%	66.4%	61.7%	91.0%	63.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	67.2%	65.9%	61.7%	91.1%	63.7%
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00	67.2%	65.9%	61.7%	91.1%	63.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	91%	78.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	67%	74.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	74.3°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	64%	73.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	62%	73.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	73.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 04:48 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗